2:00PM Water Cooler 1/27/2025 | bare capitalism

“Assured, organised, nonetheless freewheeling: Trump 2.0 has discovered from previous” [BBC]. “The stacks of leather-bound government orders piled excessive on the Resolute Desk illustrate how the Trump 2.0 period is ready in opposition to a special political panorama from 4 years in the past – one which has produced a extra emboldened commander-in-chief…. ‘It’s been way more disciplined, on-point and issue-focused,’ stated Lawrence Muir, a former official within the White Home Workplace of Nationwide Drug Management Coverage. Mr Muir, who was tasked with hiring administration personnel as a part of the 2016 Trump transition group, instructed the BBC his work was ‘primarily discarded’ by the incoming White Home on the time. ‘They didn’t have an important concept about what they have been speculated to be producing, or the way to produce it,’ he stated. ‘[Trump’s] doing a lot better this time by way of what he’s getting out, getting it out effectively, and understanding the way it must be enforced down via the businesses.’”

“Trump’s agenda is about to hit a make-or-break second” [Politico]. “Home Republicans are heading to President Donald Trump’s Miami-area resort for his or her annual coverage retreat…. The most important activity for the gathering at Trump Nationwide Doral: Finalize a funds blueprint plan for the huge, party-line invoice they’re planning, touching power, border safety and tax coverage. However to do this, Republicans have to determine what is going to go in that bundle — with the value tag of Trump’s priorities reaching $10 trillion over 10 years — versus what is perhaps included in a separate, bipartisan authorities funding invoice that shall be negotiated with Democrats over the subsequent seven weeks. The destiny of a needed debt ceiling improve is prime of thoughts…. The deliberate retreat discussions have been tailor-made to point out attending members the probabilities for the best way ahead and to take their temperatures on potential spending cuts, in response to three Republicans with direct data of the planning. Leaders must fastidiously stability generally competing pursuits from varied GOP factions.” And: “Centrists are additionally relaying their considerations to GOP leaders about some committees’ plans to focus on items of the Reasonably priced Care Act, Medicaid and the Supplemental Diet Help Program that gives meals assist advantages for greater than 40 million low-income Individuals…. These proposals are comparatively extra palatable for GOP lawmakers in aggressive districts than the huge cuts to present advantages some conservatives would favor. However they’re nonetheless politically divisive and will present Democrats main marketing campaign fodder in blue and purple districts forward of the 2026 midterms.” • However reducing Medicaid, although straightforward and enjoyable, gained’t get these trillions. It by no means does.

“Trump actions may wreak havoc on South Florida’s sizeable Colombian inhabitants” [Miami Herald]. “Florida is residence to 473,606 Colombians, in response to the U.S. Census information. The state has lengthy been a magnet for brand spanking new arrivals from the South American nation who’re in search of a spot the place there are numerous Spanish audio system, a heat local weather and a ready-made group.” • Curiously, the story doesn’t sat what share of these new arrivals have their papers so as.

“Trump needs to sort out inflation. Will these prime actions carry costs down?” [WaPo]. The deck: “Right here’s six key actions, government orders and guarantees, from this previous week and the way they might have an effect on inflation.” Extra: “‘The truth is, inflation of the sort we have now will get embedded into the economic system and takes a very long time to wring out,’ stated Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Motion Discussion board, a conservative assume tank. ‘There aren’t many fast options.’” Be that as it might, the six: Immigration crackdowns, deportations [▲]; New tariffs and commerce insurance policies [▲]; Increasing oil and gasoline drilling, different power overhauls [▼]; Rolling again rules [▼]; Undoing Biden’s efforts to decrease prescription drug costs[?]; Decreasing rates of interest[▲].” • Triangles for what WaPo thinks may go up, or down.

“Trump shocks the system. Will he resolve issues voters care about most?” [Dan Balz, WaPo]. “The bigger subject for Trump, and what finally will decide the political and substantive success of his second time period, is whether or not this flurry of exercise signaling a serious course change will end result within the betterment of the lives of the voters who supported him in November. Eliminating DEI workplaces and personnel will cheer his most loyal supporters and damage a federal workforce in a nation turning into extra ethnically numerous. It gained’t essentially assist households struggling to pay payments. Deporting thousands and thousands of undocumented immigrants actually may increase meals costs and additional labor shortages…. Stunning the system is one factor. Offering tangible outcomes to folks is one other.”

2028

Our Famously Free Press

“Too A lot Information, Redux” [Jon Allsop, Columbia Journalism Review]. “I famous in 2020 that the ‘fundamental rhythms’ of the information enterprise aren’t designed to deal with deluges of giant tales: regardless of the day’s information, it should be stretched or shrunk to fill roughly the identical variety of newspaper column inches or cable information hours; the web, in fact, theoretically presents near-infinite house for information protection to broaden, however many digital codecs—from homepages to newsletters—themselves have spatial limits, and that’s earlier than we get into strained newsroom sources and apparently diminished viewers buy-in, as Stelter identified final week. These constraints make it laborious for the information media, as a collective equipment, to speak proportion. We’ve got instruments for organizing tales by significance—again in 2020, I famous that the New York Instances had run thirty-three banner front-page print headlines in lower than six months, smashing even its election-year common—however the fixed blare of headlines, as I famous, can have a ‘flattening impact, making it more durable, over an extended time frame, to tell apart precise information from consideration hustling.’ The issue of proportionality is recurring now. A narrative previewing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s doubtlessly radical plans to ‘goal vaccines’ ought to he be confirmed as well being and human companies secretary appeared about midway down a serious Politico e-newsletter on Friday; yesterday, the CIA lab-leak story made the entrance web page of the Instances, however solely in short kind on the very backside. Evidently that in the summertime of 2020, each these tales would have been earth-shaking.” • Allsop complains of Trump’s tendency to make information, or not less than information tales — “flood the zone with sh*t” — however I believe there are extra tales on the market, as one would anticipate as a operate of gradual civilizational collapse (newsrooms are smaller too).

Democrats en déshabillé

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Column: The rise of Silicon Valley, from indifference to lords of the political universe” [Los Angeles Times]. “When the excessive and mighty of Silicon Valley assumed their privileged perch on the swearing-in of President Trump, it was an ostentatious present of wealth and energy not like any earlier than. ‘You would return to the Gilded Age and you may have an analogous focus of capital and energy. You already know, Rockefeller and Carnegie,’ stated historian Margaret O’Mara, citing two of the richest males who ever bestrode the earth. ‘However they weren’t on the dais of the inauguration.’…. The reason for his or her propinquity lies not within the creation of some whiz-bang, life-changing, paradigm-bending shopper product, or the shining virtues or notably fertile minds that grace Silicon Valley’s fruited plain. ‘It’s one of many oldest truisms in politics,’ stated Larry Gerston, a San José State political science professor emeritus, who’s adopted the tech business from a front-row seat for many years. ‘Cash buys entry.’ Bezos’ Amazon and Zuckerberg’s Meta have been among the many tech companies that tithed $1 million every to assist pay for Trump’s inauguration. Musk invested greater than 1 / 4 of a billion {dollars} to assist elect Trump. Given his conjoined-twin closeness to the forty seventh president, it seems cash effectively spent.’”

Airborne governance, fascinating idea:

Masking and sophistication:

So that they inform us:

1. 12% typically can’t afford fundamental dwelling bills, and 24% battle to cowl necessities.
2. Solely 6% are in a position to save for the long run.
3. One-third of staff say their wage has not saved up with inflation.
4. 55% assume their wage is decrease than it ought to be.
5. 29% have moved to lower-cost areas or housing to navigate monetary pressure.
6. 3 in 10 have taken on debt to cowl dwelling bills.
7. Solely 4% of staff really feel actually valued of their function.

Commentary:

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