By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, yesterday was the advanced maneuvering preparatory to journey. Right this moment is the lurching and jolting of precise journey, hopefully arriving at a full complement of Water Cooler objects. –lambert
Chicken Music of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Nation Houses Flats, Jefferson, Texas, United States.
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
- Theories of Trump’s nomination nethodology.
- Treasury rumors proceed.
- RFK Large Mac flap.
Search for the Helpers
“Underrated methods to alter the world” [Experimental History].
Right here is an exemplary scientific paper:
In the course of the writer’s childhood, varied famend authorities (his mom, a number of aunts, and, later, his mother-in-law [personal communication]) knowledgeable him that cracking his knuckles would result in arthritis of the fingers. To check the accuracy of this speculation, the next examine was undertaken.
For 50 years, the writer cracked the knuckles of his left hand at the very least twice a day, leaving these on the precise as a management. Thus, the knuckles on the left had been cracked at the very least 36,500 instances, whereas these on the precise cracked not often and spontaneously. On the finish of the 50 years, the fingers had been in contrast for the presence of arthritis.
There was no arthritis in both hand, and no obvious variations between the 2 fingers.
Folks typically suppose they will’t do analysis as a result of they don’t have an enormous magnet or a laser or a closet stuffed with reagents. However they’ve one thing the skilled scientists don’t have: freedom. The professionals can’t do something that’s too bizarre, takes too lengthy, or would increase the suspicion of an Institutional Evaluate Board. That form of stuff has to occur in a basement or a yard, which is why the “paper’ above is, in actual fact, a letter to the editor written by a medical physician on a lark.
* * * My electronic mail deal with is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m searching for (and never, say, the Pink Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza)
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
* * * Trump Transition
“Trump’s casting name as he builds out his administration: TV expertise most popular” [Associated Press]. ” There’s a typical trait that President-elect Donald Trump is clearly prizing as he selects these to serve in his new administration: expertise on tv. Trump loves that ‘central casting’ look, as he likes to name it…. [He’s] working to arrange a extra forceful administration on this time period, and in his eyes, a lot of these individuals occur to intersect with celeb…. The White Home-to-cable information pundit pipeline tends to chop throughout administrations of each events, to some extent. President Joe Biden had three MSNBC contributors on his transition workforce and his former press secretary went to the community after she left the White Home. Biden, although, regarded to profession diplomats, longtime authorities staff and navy leaders for key posts just like the Protection Division.” • You would argue, I suppose, that the social capital intrinsic to celeb provides these appointments a sure autonomy; they will all the time return on cable or safe an “Orange Man Unhealthy”-type e-book deal. In fact, this cuts in opposition to the “loyalist” narrative. Readers, what do you suppose?
* * * “Trump reconsiders Treasury Secretary nomination, could not select pro-crypto” [Binance]. • Think about respiration a sigh of aid that we’re getting some personal fairness weasel, and never some crypto bro.
“Elon Musk’s endorsement of a Treasury secretary candidate has reportedly rubbed Trump’s individuals the fallacious approach” [Fortune]. “Regardless of the obvious unease of some Trump staffers with Musk’s actions, there is no such thing as a proof that any rift has shaped between Musk and Trump. Musk continues to be spending a lot of his time at Mar-a-Lago, and traveled with Trump to New York Saturday to attend a UFC battle. Whoever turns into Treasury secretary, Musk is more likely to work considerably intently with them as a part of his duties with the Division of Authorities Effectivity (DOGE). DOGE will work with the White Home Workplace of Administration and Finances to implement the suggestions of Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Musk has mentioned beforehand he believes it’s attainable to chop $2 trillion from the federal finances, although many have been skeptical of this determine.”
* * * “Sweating RFK Jr. Performs Self-Surgical procedure To Extract Large Mac From Abdomen” [The Onion]. • The Dems ginned up a bit of ethical panic about this the opposite day, however fortunately I can get rid of it with a hyperlink to The Onion: As with a lot else.
* * * The Case for Matt Gaetz” [Compact Magazine]. “There are two methods to have a look at the corruption that’s rife in Twenty first-century American life. One view is that reform calls for a saint to reproach the depraved…. The second view is that if we should await an immaculate reformer, reform won’t ever come. So we should help even clearly flawed people after they tackle the mandatory work of confronting systemic evils.” This speaks nicely of him: “This yr, Gaetz took James Poulos and a movie crew from The Blaze on a tour of congressional places of work whose occupants—together with Republicans—had been violators of Congress’s seldom-enforced guidelines in opposition to insider buying and selling.” And: “Gaetz has been complimentary towards Lina Khan, chairwoman of the Federal Commerce Fee, and the Biden Justice Division’s chief antitrust official, Jonathan Kanter. The New York Submit notes that Google, specifically, is more likely to be a spotlight of antitrust consideration in a Gaetz Division of Justice, which could transfer to interrupt up the tech megalith. The identical story quotes Gaetz referring to Large Tech corporations in 2021 as ‘the web’s corridor screens’ with a bias in opposition to conservatives. Gaetz has described himself as a ‘libertarian populist,’ and that characterization is mirrored by his stances on civil liberties and social points.” •
How the Gaetz Ethics report may nonetheless come out if the panel blocks it” [Politico]. “Right here’s a breakdown of what may occur if [Ethics Committee] members vote to not launch the [Gaetz] report, and different methods the investigative findings may see the sunshine of day…. Somebody leaks it to the press: Ethics Committee members and workers don’t take the prospect of a leak calmly, if the panel votes to maintain the report underneath wraps. A part of that’s wanting to guard the credibility of the panel, however members additionally take an oath, pledging: “I cannot disclose, to any particular person or entity outdoors the Committee on Ethics, any info obtained in the middle of my service with the Committee, besides as licensed by the Committee or in accordance with its guidelines.”… Utilizing the Home flooring: Some lawmakers are privately theorizing that, ought to the committee block the discharge of the report, a lawmaker may go to the Home or Senate flooring and skim it into the congressional report moderately than leak it to the media…. Sharing it with senators: Even when the Ethics panel doesn’t wish to make the report public, they will vote to share it with the Senate Judiciary Committee forward of potential affirmation hearings…. Sober warning: Workers-driven leaks have occurred earlier than, however usually not in a state of affairs with a lot at stake. Along with shedding a job, there are additionally actual issues of political violence if a workers leaker’s title turned public.” • Hmmm.
* * * “What to learn about Dr. Mehmet Oz, Trump’s decide to steer Medicare and Medicaid” [Associated Press]. “Oz had a web value between $100 million and $315 million, in line with a federal monetary disclosure he filed in 2022, which provides greenback values in ranges however doesn’t present particular figures.” • Oh.
* * * “Prosecutors request keep in Trump NY case till 2029 as protection plans movement for dismissal ‘as soon as and for all’” [FOX]. “New York prosecutors are requesting a keep till at the very least 2029 in New York v. Trump, because the president’s protection attorneys put together to maneuver to dismiss the case fully. Prosecutors wrote a letter to Decide Juan Merchan on Tuesday, who agreed final week to grant a keep on all deadlines related to the conviction proceedings in opposition to Trump within the last months earlier than he takes workplace. åMerchan granted the request, which points a keep on all deadlines, together with the Nov. 26 sentencing date, to think about the impact of his election as president. Prosecutors had requested for the pause in proceedings, which they mentioned would enable them to higher consider the influence of Trump’s new standing as president-elect. ‘On account of the election held on November 5, 2024, Defendant’s inauguration as President will happen on January 20, 2025,’ Manhattan District Legal professional Alvin Bragg wrote to Merchan on Tuesday.” And: “Trump’s attorneys have requested that Merchan overturn the responsible verdict, citing the US Supreme Court docket’s choice that former presidents have substantial immunity from prosecution for official acts in workplace. Trump’s authorized workforce argued that sure proof offered by Bragg and New York prosecutors throughout the trial mustn’t have been admitted, as they had been ‘official acts.’”
2024 Submit Mortem
Deploy the Blame Cannons!
* * * “NBC’s Kornacki: Republicans Obtain Historic Realignment, 25-Level Shift Amongst Decrease-Revenue Voters Since 2012” [RealClearPolitics]. KORNACKI: “Bear in mind, three straight elections Trump’s been the Republican candidate. So pre-Trump voters underneath 30 had been going for the Democrats by 23 factors. Of us with incomes underneath $50,000, 22 factors for the Democrats. Of us with out faculty levels, 4 factors for the Democrats. That’s pre-Trump. What comes out of this election? Take a look at a few of these shifts. The youth vote, that Democratic margin lower greater than in half. Voters underneath $50,000, now a Republican constituency. Voters with no faculty diploma, have a look at that shift. Now a core Republican constituency. After which we are able to speak about race, ethnicity. This will get into that range I discussed a minute in the past. Examine this out. Once more, pre-Trump versus now. The Black vote nonetheless overwhelmingly Democratic, however that’s a 15-point shift. It was 87 factors for the Democrats, all the way down to 72. How about this? You’ve heard lots about it this week. That is what the numbers appear to be. Hispanic voters had been 44 factors Democratic earlier than Donald Trump. Now, mainly a toss-up constituency. And Asian Individuals, a 32-point shift there as nicely. That’s what’s occurred to the Republican Occasion since Donald Trump turned its normal bearer eight years in the past. This has been the motion.”
Spook Nation
“Somebody accessed recordsdata mentioned to include damaging information about Trump AG-nominee Gaetz, lawyer says” [Associated Press]. “An unauthorized particular person gained entry to a file containing confidential testimony from ladies who’ve made allegations about former Rep. Matt Gaetz, Donald Trump’s decide to turn out to be the following legal professional basic, a lawyer mentioned Tuesday. Attorneys concerned in a civil case introduced by a Gaetz affiliate had been notified this week that an unauthorized particular person accessed a file shared between legal professionals that included unredacted depositions from a lady who has mentioned Gaetz had intercourse together with her when she was 17, and a second lady who says she noticed the encounter, in line with legal professional Joel Leppard.” • Appears odd. Submitting this right here for causes I assume are apparent, regardless of the shortage of proof.
Democrats en déshabillé
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Transmission: H5N1
“Chicken flu in Canada could have mutated to turn out to be extra transmissible to people” [Guardian]. “{The teenager} hospitalized with chicken flu in British Columbia, Canada, could have a variation of the virus that has a mutation making it extra transmissible amongst individuals, early information exhibits – a warning of what the virus can do that’s particularly worrisome in nations such because the US the place some H5N1 instances are usually not being detected…. Preliminary sequencing of the H5N1 variant sickening {the teenager} confirmed a possible mutation on the genomic spot recognized to make individuals extra prone to the virus. That would point out that H5N1 has the aptitude to turn out to be extra like a human virus, moderately than an avian virus, however additionally it is not clear but whether or not this alteration is significant and extra harmful to individuals, specialists mentioned. Canadian officers have been conducting blood checks among the many teen’s contacts, and so they count on outcomes later this week. They’re additionally awaiting the outcomes of different checks achieved over the weekend.” • In the meantime in California:
⚠️Frightened—That is at the very least the third COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION incidence of H5N1 with none animal contact. Identical with the ICU hospitalized case. That is both human-to-human, or possibly lengthy distance airborne transmission from animal to human someway with out direct contact. Worrisome. https://t.co/a0PDCQQrjj
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 19, 2024
Nicely, it’s not like susceptible individuals congregate in hospitals:
NIH has resumed requiring masking in all affected person care areas and testing for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, Influenza B, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) on inpatients. Sonoma County additionally requiring masking. However #HICPAC thinks masks are pointless. Make HICPAC make sense! pic.twitter.com/2xbQUBdAdC
— Judy Stone (@DrJudyStone) November 19, 2024
Elite Maleficence
“The World Is Watching the U.S. Deal With Chicken Flu, and It’s Scary” [New York Times]. “Failure to regulate H5N1 amongst American livestock may have international penalties, and this calls for pressing consideration. America has achieved little to reassure the world that it has the outbreak contained…. [T]he United States ought to keep in mind that the nation the place a pandemic emerges will be accused of not doing sufficient to regulate it. We nonetheless hear how China didn’t do sufficient to cease the Covid-19 pandemic. None of us would desire a new pandemic labeled the ‘American virus,’ as this might be very damaging for the US’ status and financial system….I perceive that it’s not straightforward to steer companies, such because the meat and dairy industries, to permit the testing of all of their animals and staffs, and to make that information public rapidly. However I additionally know that ultimately, doing so protects lives, lessens financial injury and creates a safer world. The world can not afford to gamble with this virus, letting it unfold in animals and hoping it by no means sparks a critical outbreak — or crossing our fingers that its results gained’t be critical in individuals. Time will inform. I hope we aren’t watching the beginning of a brand new pandemic unfold, with each the American and the worldwide communities burying our heads within the sand moderately than confronting potential hazard.”
“Australian COVID inquiry promotes “let it rip,” denounces public well being measures” [WSWS]. “The report of a authorities commissioned inquiry into Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was launched on Tuesday…. The inquiry spanned a yr. The report runs to 892 pages. It’s, nonetheless, utterly nugatory from an analytical or scientific standpoint, including nothing to an understanding of pandemics and public well being usually, or the expertise of COVID-19 specifically. As a substitute, the report is a crude promotion of the profit-driven “let it rip” insurance policies that persist to today. It’s noteworthy solely as one more marker of the assault on public well being and the rights of the inhabitants that this homicidal program has entailed…. With regard to lockdowns and different measures corresponding to masks mandates, they complain: ‘Effectiveness was inferred from general reported case numbers, however it is a very restricted method to analysis and didn’t reveal which [restrictions] had been efficient and whether or not the stringency settings had been proper.’ These unqualified assertions, denouncing measures that saved lives, are all of the extra putting, provided that the report notes, ‘Australia would have had between 15 and 46 instances the variety of deaths if it had skilled the identical COVID-related dying charges as comparable nations like Canada and Sweden.’ That’s, however for the measures that the report denounces, a whole bunch of 1000’s, or much more than one million individuals would have perished out of a inhabitants of 25 million.” • If these GBD psychos safe a lodgment within the Trump Administration, that is precisely what they’ll do, or attempt to do, right here. And eugencist permits like Zients, Jha, Walensky, and Cohen will do all the pieces they will to helkp them. Commentary:
Do we’ve any Australians within the readership who wish to share their views?
Some kinda dying cult, or what?
Extra optimistic than I’m. From the UK:
May very well be one thing to this:
Sure, there are individuals who eat brunch. And there are
individualsentities who serve brunch.
TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
Wastewater | |
This week[1] CDC November 11 | Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
|
|
Variants [3] CDC November 9 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 9 |
|
|
Hospitalization | |
★ New York[5] New York State, information November 18: | Nationwide [6] CDC November 14: |
|
|
Positivity | |
Nationwide[7] Walgreens November 18: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 16: |
|
|
Vacationers Information | |
Positivity[9] CDC October 28: | Variants[10] CDC October 28: |
|
|
Deaths | |
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2: |
|
|
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Excellent news!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* nonetheless in style. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has achieved an excellent job normalizing successive waves of an infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Really improved; it’s now one of many few charts to indicate the complete course of the pandemic to the current day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Now XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
There are not any official statistics of curiosity as we speak.
Retail: “Walmart is feeling jolly as the vacation purchasing season approaches” [Wall Street Journal Logistics Report]. “The nation’s largest retailer says U.S. comparable gross sales, these from shops and digital channels in operation for at the very least 12 months, rose a higher-than-expected 5.3% within the newest quarter. The WSJ’s Sarah Nassauer reviews that the expansion was propelled by customers shopping for groceries, dwelling items and toys, an indication that spending is off to a strong begin heading into the busiest purchasing season of the yr. Walmart’s revenue elevated on decrease e-commerce supply prices, fewer reductions and better income from promoting. The retailer mentioned it lower its web supply price per order within the U.S. by about 40% within the quarter.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing to put off roughly 2,200 Washington staff 5 days earlier than Christmas” [FOX]. “The layoffs are a part of the debt-heavy U.S. planemaker’s plan to chop 17,000 jobs, or 10% of its international workforce, in line with a union official and federally required filings posted on Monday.” • That’ll educate ’em.
Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 49 Impartial (earlier shut: 50 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 65 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 20 at 11:09:45 AM ET.
Thanksgiving Pre-Recreation Festivities
“Report 80 million Individuals anticipated to journey for Thanksgiving vacation, trade group says” [Reuters]. • We’ll see what the charts appear to be afterwards.
Healthcare
“Add 11 years to your life? Science says it’s so simple as a each day stroll” {StudyFinds]. “In what could be the most effective return on funding since Bitcoin’s early days, scientists have found that each hour of strolling may yield as much as six hours of extra life. In contrast to cryptocurrency, nonetheless, this funding is assured by the legal guidelines of human biology. An thrilling modeling examine reveals that if each American over the age of 40 was as bodily lively as essentially the most lively quarter of the inhabitants, they may count on to reside an additional 5 years on common…. Examine authors analyzed information from the Nationwide Well being and Dietary Examination Survey (NHANES), specializing in Individuals aged 40 and older who wore exercise screens for at the very least 4 days. In contrast to earlier research that relied on contributors’ reminiscence and honesty about their exercise ranges, these screens offered goal measurements of each motion all through the day. The outcomes confirmed a putting ‘diminishing returns‘ impact within the relationship between bodily exercise and longevity. The best advantages had been seen among the many least lively people: shifting from the bottom exercise quarter to the second-lowest required simply 28.5 minutes of extra strolling per day however may add 6.3 years to life expectancy. Meaning each hour of strolling for this group translated to an additional 6.3 hours of life — a powerful return on funding. As individuals turned extra lively, the extra advantages per hour of exercise decreased however remained important.” • Right here is the examine, which pleasingly confirms my priors. Maybe some type reader can check out the methodology.
Gallery
“What a carve up! Playful, intricate Japanese leaf artwork – in footage” [Guardian]. “Nearly daily for the previous 5 years, the Kanagawa-born artist Lito has drawn a picture on to a leaf – normally a jaunty scene from the animal world involving, say, a biker-dude rabbit or a frog in a telephone field – and carved it out with a scalpel earlier than posting {a photograph} to social media. A painstaking course of, it nonetheless fits Lito’s “propensity to commit lengthy hours to detailed work” – a prognosis of ADHD aged 30 was what prompted him to stop his company job and begin carving leaves for a dwelling. And a dwelling it’s: he’s offered 300,000 copies of his leaf-art books so far and reveals his work all through Japan. The mix of playful Studio Ghibli-esque creativeness and exhaustive consideration to element is central to the enchantment.” • For instance:
Class Warfare
“Trash,” eh?
Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From expat2uruguay:
expat2uruguay writes: “I’ve this begonia leaf that I used to be going to attempt to propagate utilizing a method I’ve solely examine. The method requires pinning down the injured elements of the leaf or maybe overlaying them with rocks, so using steel jacks is my very own innovation right here.” Can readers touch upon this system?
Sort readers, the inventory of plant footage continues to be too scant for consolation… .
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t categorical the views of the Bare Capitalism website. If you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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