By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Sure, I’ll do an election evening dwell weblog tomorrow! –lambert
Fowl Tune of the Day
Returning to the Northern Mockingbirds. Love the binomial: Mimus polyglottos.
Northern Mockingbird, 71 Maltby Street East, Wellington, Ontario, Canada. “Superb mimicking skills of assorted songbirds; singing persistently from completely different perches (high of a tree or a bush, wire); singing whereas in flight as nicely; shifting from one perch to a different fairly ceaselessly; very vocal and energetic, chasing different birds away from its territory esp American Robins; superb mimicking skills; nice singer though I’m undecided if I would love it each morning subsequent to my bed room window. So intense :).”
In Case You May Miss…
- Right this moment’s RCP polling: Kamala closing.
- Dueling Op-Eds on Kamala v. Trump.
- Boeing vote right now.
- Information Guild tech employees strike at NYT on election day.
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Countdown!
NEW Right this moment’s RCP Ballot Averages:
Lambert right here: If we ignore the idea of margin of error, right now’s survey, mixed with Friday’s, says that Kamala is closing (and the Blue Wall is hers once more). Recall additionally that the polls lag: If Huge Mo is on Kamala’s website, she might forward by now. Then once more, when you have a look at the electoral school outcomes with the Toss-Up states turned pink or blue, Trump is secure and forward. (I’m “dancing with the one which brung ya” on methodology, right here; I’ve watched RCP constantly all 12 months, hoping the typical would defeat polarization and manipulation, and we’ll know in some unspecified time in the future, nicely, within the close to future whether or not that was an applicable alternative.) In fact, we on the skin would possibly as nicely be analyzing the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what is going to occur to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, particularly, who will decide the end result of the election however would possibly as nicely be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the state of affairs as underneath management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “Column: The case in opposition to Donald Trump is obvious. Right here’s the case for Kamala Harris” [Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times]. Listed here are six causes Harris could be a greater president:.. She has promised to hunt consensus and compromise, two phrases Trump has hardly ever uttered. We might use a dose of each…. Harris’ financial insurance policies are much less prone to produce runaway inflation and deficits than Trump’s…. Harris has supplied severe proposals to handle three urgent issues: housing, childcare and elder care…. Harris says U.S. overseas coverage needs to be based mostly on sturdy alliances with different democracies, not cynical partnerships with tyrants like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping… And, in fact, she that ladies could make selections about abortion with out state governments endangering their lives.” • “Would work to make sure” = “struggle for” = “received’t get the job carried out,” as Democrats have didn’t do on Roe for a era. McManus isn’t dumb; the Democrats might abolish the filibuster and codify Roe when the Congress opens and the Senate units its guidelines. Did Doyle get a dedication from Kamala on this? And even ask the query? No. So it received’t get carried out.
* * * Kamala (D): Historical past rhymes:
So, they narcissistically changed “we” with “she?”
That is actually “it’s her flip.” https://t.co/mrIm6AFHGK
— Briahna Pleasure Grey (@briebriejoy) November 4, 2024
2008 – 2024 just isn’t a speedy decay, in historic phrases.
Kamala (D): “35 12 months nationwide safety professional”:
The girl stricken with TDS is none aside from Patti Morrissey, a former senior DoD and ODNI official. Sadly this illness is pervasive inside the nationwide safety equipment, and that degrades belief in these essential authorities establishments. https://t.co/wDtwWfFrqc
— Ezra A. Cohen (@EzraACohen) November 3, 2024
Now a authorities contractor (naturally). ODNI is among the organs of state safety concerned in election validation. I ponder who many levels of separation between Morrissey, Jessica Brandt at ODNI’s Overseas Malign Affect Heart, and DHS’s Jen Easterly at CISA. Not very many, I might guess. Maybe they go to the identical yoga class, or some such.
* * *
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Social Norming
I genuinely don’t perceive how we can’t shield our youngsters. What’s going on right here?
It’s like a zombie film concerning the collapse of civilization.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing unit Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured items within the US fell by 0.5% from the earlier month to $584.2 billion in September of 2024, extending the revised 0.8% decline in August and loosely in step with market expectations of a 0.4% drop.”
Manufacturing: “The Boeing strike vote; the United Airways instance” [Air Insight]. “The pause in MAX deliveries disrupted United’s community planning. Airways promote seats 360 days out, so planning is crucial, and supply disruptions trigger chaos. It’s a delicate stability, and we see again and again the business loses stability rapidly. It all the time recovers, however that restoration invariably means persons are caught someplace they don’t wish to be, with airways bleeding cash as they get better.” • So the IAM nonetheless has some leverage past the money movement drawback Wall Road solved for Boeing.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Had a Huge Week. This One Is Even Greater” [Barron’s]. “The brand new labor contract provide will increase base wages by about $1.1 billion yearly over the lifetime of the contract, based on Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.” That’s all? Extra: “Administration should offset will increase with larger productiveness. Boeing not too long ago introduced it could lay off some 17,000 folks which can assist offset price will increase.” • However not govt bonuses or inventory buybacks. Naturally.
Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 44 Concern (earlier shut: 48 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 60 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 4 at 1:09:25 PM ET. Fairly a swing.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Curiosity Charges. “Long run charges are shifting larger” [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 182. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is nice.) •
Gallery
Millet is nice. Discover his try to catch work (“switch of vitality by a drive appearing on an object as it’s displaced”) in paint, particularly with the center determine’s raised arm. (John Berger noticed the identical factor with a potato in mid-air, being dropped right into a furrow by a peasant.)
The Washerwomen pic.twitter.com/rbJjkoraSY
— Jean-Francois Millet (@artistmillet) October 24, 2024
I want there have been an Impressionist Millet (or a Cubist Millet) however AFAIK there’s not.
Permaculture
“Utilizing Leaves For Insulation Round My Studio” [Full Moon Fiber Art]. “I began yesterday and completed raking leaves right now. I crammed up 16 forty gallons baggage with leaves and put them on three sides of my studio. The one facet with out leaves is the south going through the place the inspiration is so low it’s hardly seen…. And it’s an excellent use of the leaves. Within the spring I’ll burn them in my equinox bon hearth. The baggage are heavy obligation, so I’ll save those that survive the winter and use them once more subsequent 12 months.” • I’ve carried out this and it actually works; transformed the coldest room in the home to the warmest. I recycle the leaves for mulch. The leaves must be dry. In all probability not too late for these of you in chilly climates!
Class Warfare
“New York Occasions Tech Employees Go on Strike on Eve of 2024 Election, Alleging Unfair Labor Practices” [Variety]. “The Occasions Tech Guild represents greater than 600 engineers, knowledge managers, designers, software program builders and tech personnel who develop and run the techniques that energy the paper’s web site and apps. If the strike continues into Tuesday, it will likely be the primary to coincide with a presidential election within the NewsGuild because the 1964 Detroit newspaper strike, based on the union…. Not one of the Occasions’ writers or editors who’re masking the elections are immediately concerned within the Occasions Tech Guild strike. A spokesperson for the Occasions stated the corporate has ‘strong plans in place to make sure that we’re in a position to fulfill our mission and serve our readers.’” • IOW, scabs.
“Assist Putting New York Occasions Tech Employees by Breaking Your Wordle Streak” [Gizmodo]. “The New York Occasions’s software program engineers are on strike proper now and so they have a easy request for readers: don’t play Wordle or the crossword puzzle this week. The Occasions Tech Guild represents greater than 600 tech employees who preserve The Occasions’ digital new empire. The New York Occasions is a storied information group nevertheless it’s additionally a tech firm. It has thrived when so many different information shops have failed, partially, as a result of its pivot to digital was good and strong. Video games like Wordle, Spelling Bee, Connections, and the Crossword drive large numbers to the Occasions. The NYT Cooking App is beloved by many and brings in a number of income. However all that tech requires a wealth of backend assist. In 2022, the Occasions’ tech employees unionized and so they’ve been negotiating with administration ever since. They signaled again in September that they had been ready to strike and would do it round election day. In line with a press release from the Guild, the present ache factors between it and administration are: return to workplace mandates, limits on subcontracting, pay and fairness, and “simply trigger” job protections. Employees need a provision of their contract that will guarantee staff are solely terminated for misconduct or related causes. ‘We now have been sounding the alarm for weeks and cleared our schedules to get this contract carried out earlier than the election week deadline,’ Susan DeCarava, the president of The NewsGuild of New York stated in a press release. ‘As employees and subscribers, we’re disheartened that the Occasions is prepared to gamble with its election protection to keep away from agreeing to a good and simply contract. We stay able to discount and sit up for reaching an settlement our members at Occasions Tech Guild will ratify.’ Putting the day earlier than the election is a calculated transfer designed to place most stress on the paper at a time when its readership is spiking. The vaunted ‘election needle’ is a staple of the Occasions’ protection and it doesn’t run with out the assist of back-end tech employees.”
“Diddy makes shock try to silence grand jury witness who made bombshell claims about rapper’s ‘freak-off’ events” [Daily Mail]. “Attorneys for Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs have made a surprising try to silence a grand jury witness who has made bombshell claims concerning the rapper’s so-called ‘freak-off’ events. Attorneys Marc Agnifilo and Tony Geragos submitted a letter to the federal choose overseeing the hip hop mogul’s intercourse trafficking and racketeering case, asking him to expedite their movement for a gag order on witnesses, citing a ‘deluge of improper pretrial publicity,’ ABC Information experiences. It says the statements made by sure people are ‘undermining Mr. Combs’ proper to a good trial and the integrity of the grand jury proceedings.’ The attorneys hit out particularly at Combs’ former good friend, Courtney Burgess, who has claimed in a number of interviews he has seen movies of main celebrities being ‘victimized’ at Diddy’s infamous ‘freak-off’ events.” • I don’t care about “celebrities.” How about executives or politicians? Folks with actual energy?
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired right now.
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Wukchumni:
Wukchumni writes: “North Rim of the Grand Canyon.”
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