By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chook Tune of the Day
Mourning Warbler, Shannondale Springs Wildlife Managment Space, Jefferson, West Virginia, United States. “As per Wil Hershberger, this recording is of an grownup male Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) that was visually recognized and in sight all through the recording. This recording was initially archived as Mourning Warbler, however the identification was later mistakenly modified by an ML archivist because of the similarity of this chicken’s tune to the tune of Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica). The topic has been modified again to Mourning Warbler as per the recordist.” Class errors abound.
John Zelnicker was a long-time reader and commenter at Bare Capitalism. He was additionally the instigator of the Bare Capitalism Songboook, now in 4 volumes (due to the songwriting and parodic abilities of many NC readers).
He died on Wednesday of this week. From his obituary:
John was a lover of music and books, ladies, know-how, top-shelf Scotch, non secular historical past, philosophy, economics, and taking part in with numbers. He would learn The Lord of the Rings trilogy and attend at the least one Grateful Useless live performance throughout each summer season break from The Wharton College on the College of Pennsylvania. John was a company hippie, working his personal tax accounting enterprise whereas sporting hideous tie-dye Crocs.
He was a remarkably gracious man, a Southern gentleman to his core, recklessly beneficiant, and so clever one might hardly sustain with him. John made pals with out even realizing it, and there was by no means a misplaced soul who crossed his path that he didn’t attempt to assist if he might. Through the years, many individuals instructed him that he ought to write a memoir, however he most well-liked to share his unbelievable tales in individual and boy, he might inform one helluva story.
After working with John on the Songbooks, I do know I can converse for all who talked with him after I say that certainly his memoir would have been fairly one thing, and it might have been an honor to have been included inside it.
And:
By no means a fan of fanfare, and with honest apologies to his family and friends, John requested no ceremony or service upon his passing. As an alternative, he hoped that individuals would select to honor his life by donating to their native public library or to Penelope Home in Cell, Alabama.
A giant fan of libraries, too, which speaks nicely of him.
In Case You May Miss…
- Friday charts: The election (tied), and Covid (improved).
- Kamala’s speeches on economics.
- New 737 malfunction (rudder pedals) found as negotiators again on the desk.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t flip the tide both. Regardless of the micturition and lamentation (very a lot together with my very own) concerning the Trump marketing campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Atmosphere Favorable to GOP” on the problems) do observe the regular deterioration in Kamala’s place within the (aggregated) prime battlegrounds. (In fact, we on the skin may as nicely be inspecting the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly may as nicely be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the scenario as underneath management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris and what (little) we will be taught from a softball interview” [Washington Examiner]. “So what might be drawn from 25 minutes of softballs and non- and semi-answers? Not a lot. However just a few scraps: First, with a pleasant, supportive interviewer, Harris can point out issues like wanting a “path to citizenship” for unlawful border crossers with out concern of additional questions. (Harris has supported the “path” coverage for years and included it in her Democratic Nationwide Conference acceptance speech.) Second, once more with a pleasant, supportive interviewer, Harris received’t even make an try and reply questions she doesn’t need, such because the distinction between inflation and value gouging and her position in creating the Biden-era inflation. And third, once more with a pleasant, supportive interviewer, Harris won’t or can not give a greater reply than her first lengthy soliloquy about aspirations and ambitions and goals and no matter. Sure, these are small advantages. The general public deserves to see Harris dealing with a real interviewer, one who would query her statements, her premises, her assumptions, who would put her on the spot. However that can in all probability not occur. The candidate, in spite of everything, decides who will get an interview and who doesn’t. And there’s no purpose to assume Harris will undergo severe scrutiny anytime quickly.”
* * * Trump (R): “The Republican Celebration is much less white than ever. Thank Donald Trump” [Vox]. “In ballot after ballot, he’s hitting or exceeding the degrees of help he obtained in 2020 from Latino and Hispanic voters. He’s primed to make inroads amongst Asian American voters, whose Democratic loyalty has regularly been declining over the previous few election cycles. And the numbers he’s posting with Black voters recommend the biggest racial realignment in an election for the reason that signing of the Civil Rights Act in 1964…. Why? Placing apart environmental components and shifts within the American citizens which can be occurring impartial of the candidates, there are just a few theories to clarify how Trump has uniquely weakened political polarization alongside the traces of race and ethnicity.1) Trump has efficiently related himself with a message of financial nostalgia, heightening nonwhite Individuals’ recollections of the pre-Covid economic system in distinction to the interval of inflation we’re now exiting. 2) Trump and his marketing campaign have additionally zeroed in particularly on outreach and messaging to nonwhite males as a part of their bigger give attention to interesting to male voters. 3) Trump and his celebration have taken benefit of a confluence of social components, together with messaging on immigration and cultural points, to shore up help from conservative voters of coloration who’ve historically voted for Democrats or not voted in any respect.” • “Financial nostalgia” is sensible framing (trans. “Lay again and luxuriate in it). Nevertheless, some voters may want to regard the Biden period as a brief blip; it’s Make America Nice Once more, in spite of everything.
* * *
* * *
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
Lambert right here: Ultimately, the wastewater knowledge seems to be improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Again to College” bullet, at the least on the nationwide stage. The wastewater drop is bolstered by the positivity numbers as nicely.
| Wastewater | |
| ★ This week[1] CDC September 23 | Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
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| ★ Variants [3] CDC September 28 | ★Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, knowledge September 25: |
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| Positivity | |
| Nationwide[7] Walgreens September 23: | ★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21: |
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| Vacationers Knowledge | |
| ★Positivity[9] CDC September 9: | ★Variants[10] CDC September 9: |
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| Deaths | |
| ★Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: | ★Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. A lot much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very fashionable. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however price noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Large drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Private Earnings: “United States Private Earnings” [Trading Economics]. “US private earnings elevated by 0.2% from the earlier month to $24.015 trillion in August of 2024, following a 0.3% rise within the earlier month and beneath market forecasts of a 0.4% rise.”
Inflation: “United States Core PCE Value Index Annual Change” [Trading Economics]. “The annual improve within the core PCE value index, the Federal Reserve’s most well-liked gauge to measure underlying inflation, edged increased to 2.7% in August of 2024 from 2.6% within the earlier month.” • Way back baked in for the election, although.
Manfucturing: “Boeing, Machinists again on the negotiating desk as strike enters third week” [Seattle Times]. “Friday’s negotiations will probably be punctuated by frustration over Boeing’s newest transfer. The corporate publicized the supply shortly after delivering it to the negotiating group, somewhat than presenting it to the union by means of discussions on the bargaining desk. Union management stated Monday that made members really feel disrespected, and discovering out concerning the particulars of the brand new supply by means of the media was like ‘a slap within the face.’ Boeing later stated in an announcement that ‘this strike is affecting our group and our communities, and we consider our workers ought to have the chance to vote on our supply. … We’ve reached out to the union to present them extra time and supply logistical help as soon as they determine to vote.’ The following day, the union’s negotiating committee instructed members they had been heading again to the bargaining desk. Boeing is keen to finish the strike because it burns by means of money and work in its factories stays halted.” • Properly, they’ll’t be that keen, can they?
Manufacturing: “Boeing strike prices U.S. $1 billion of GDP in simply two weeks as negotiations resume” [Fortune]. “The strike that has hobbled Boeing for 2 weeks is being felt not simply on the firm, but in addition throughout your complete nation. As of Friday, the fallout from the strike accounts for a $1 billion discount in U.S. GDP, based on estimates from Bjorn Markeson of financial evaluation and modeling firm IMPLAN. In accordance with Markeson’s calculations, this loss totals $700 million in Washington State alone, virtually half of which is accounted for by misplaced wages within the state…. The strike has value Boeing employees and shareholders a mixed $1.25 billion thus far, based on estimates launched by Anderson Financial Group, a unique means of measuring the financial influence than gross home product. Boeing’s debt additionally sits on the precipice of being downgraded to junk, which might considerably increase borrowing prices for a corporation that’s hemorrhaging money.”
Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 68 Greed (earlier shut: 71 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 27 at 1:56:31 PM ET.
Gallery
Capricho (1):
Duendecitos, 1797-1798 pic.twitter.com/HXajruugQS
— Francisco Goya (@artistgoya) September 27, 2024
Capricho (2):
Michael Basquiat… pic.twitter.com/xeVb2KUe4w
— El Membership del Arte 🎨📷📚🖼🕍🎼 (@Arteymas_) September 27, 2024
Class Warfare
Information of the Wired
I’m not but feeling wired.
Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From:
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