Sharp reactions to Convention Board client confidence index in the present day. Right here’s some context for this motion, in addition to that within the U.Michigan survey of financial sentiment.
Determine 1: College of Michigan Shopper Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Shopper Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (mild inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the displayed pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The Information Index statement for April is thru 4/25/2024. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich by way of FRED, Convention Board by way of Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Whereas all indices dropped (as did the information sentiment index) in April, the Convention Board index is considerably above pandemic ranges. The shock is that this index hasn’t proven a lot response to the more and more optimistic information sentiment (whereas the U.Michigan and Gallup indices have).
Â
