With Q1 third launch, together with GDP+, we have now the next image (in ranges):
FIgure 1: GDP reported (daring black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (tan), last gross sales (gentle blue), CBO June projection (purple), and GDPNow (27 June), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ stage iterated on 2019Q4 reported stage of GDP. Supply: BEA 2024Q1 third launch through FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, CBO (June), and creator’s calculations.
Reported GDP is considerably above GDO or GDP+ (1.1% and 0.9% respectively), however the progress charges usually are not too dissimilar. GDPNow is monitoring the June CBO projection (based mostly on early Might knowledge).
Closing gross sales is a measure of combination demand; this measure is sustaining tempo.
It’s simpler to see a few of these traits in progress charges.
FIgure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized progress charge of GDP reported (daring black), of GDO (blue), of GDP+ (tan), of ultimate gross sales (gentle blue), of CBO June GDP projection (purple), and of GDPNow (27 June). Progress charges calculated as first log variations. Supply: BEA 2024Q1 third launch through FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, CBO (June), and creator’s calculations.
What’s additionally true is that each one measures have decelerated in Q1, with GDP and GDO progress charges matching.
At a better frequency, we have now slight acceleration, because the Lewis-Mertens-Inventory/NY Fed WEI is studying at 2.53% (for knowledge by means of 6/22), whereas the Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims is at -0.16% (i.e., -0.16% under pattern progress)
