Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m at consensus, nominal revenue at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Right here’s the image of key NBER BCDC indicators plus month-to-month GDP:
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.
Addendum, 10am Pacific Time:
Alternate indicator for nonfarm payroll employment, manufacturing as an alternative of business manufacturing, coincident index as an alternative of month-to-month GDP, and GDO as an alternative of GDP additionally counsel continued progress by means of June 2024.
Determine 2: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (daring darkish blue), civilian employment adjusted to CBO immigration by means of mid-2023 (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and Coincident Index (mild pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. GDI utilized in calculating GDO for 2024Q2 estimated by predicting 2024Q2 internet working surplus utilizing GDP, lagged surplus, lagged differenced surplus, 2021Q1-2024Q1.Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance launch, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Observe the adjustment for civilian employment solely extends to mid-2023. Reported adjustments in civilian employment used thereafter. Therefore, the adjusted stage of civilian employment does not likely present up on this normalization to 2023M04 (for normalization to 2021M11, see this put up).
Observe that three different different indicators — actual retail gross sales, car miles traveled, and heavy truck gross sales (which is extremely unstable), we don’t see large drops.
Determine 3: Actual retail gross sales (teal, left scale), car miles traveled (brown, left scale), and heavy truck gross sales (mild inexperienced, proper scale), all in logs, 2023M04=0. Retail gross sales deflated by chained CPI, seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing X-13. Supply: Census, NHTSA, BLS, by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations.
