From a VoxEU article at the moment, by Robert N. McCauley with Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn:
Will the freezing of the Financial institution of Russia’s international change reserves undermine the greenback’s predominant function in official international change reserves? This column examines the combination proof since end-2021 for any discount within the greenback share of official international change reserves towards a baseline constructed with information from 1999 by 2021. The noticed greenback share in March 2024 differs little from the out-of-sample projection primarily based on this baseline. On this exhibiting, official reserve managers haven’t diminished the function of the greenback for the reason that freeze of the Financial institution of Russia’s belongings.
The important thing graph (Determine 1 from the article):
Supply: IMF Cofer; authors’ calculations.
Be aware: Projection makes use of 2021Q4 greenback share of 58.8%, fixed of -.121 and coefficient for the impact of valuation change of .735. the place the latter two are estimated from quarterly adjustments within the greenback share over the 91 quarters 1999Q2-2021Q4.
Hyperlink to Chinn, Frankel and Ito (JIMF, 2024), cited above.
