From the just-released Summer time WMC Wisconsin Employer Survey:
“There is no such thing as a query that the combo of upper prices and better rates of interest are making employers rethink funding and hiring plans,” added Bauer. “Whereas we could not enter right into a usually outlined recession, this information reveals that the economic system could stagnate not less than by means of the top of the yr.”
Properly, the views on the Wisconsin economic system are just about unchanged because the winter survey:
Supply: WMC. Notes: n=180, 182, for Winter and Summer time, respectively. Survey respondents are members of WMC.
What do goal indicators present in regards to the Wisconsin economic system within the 6 months following the Winter survey (launched January seventeenth) (shaded lilac in Determine 1 under)?
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), actual wages and salaries deflated by nationwide chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (purple), coincident index (inexperienced), all in logs 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes the 6 months after the WMC Winter survey. Supply: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and writer’s calculations.
Nonfarm payroll employment, in addition to actual wages and salaries, and the coincident index, all rose in the course of the interval in query. Civilian employment, which isn’t notably nicely measured on the state stage, alone was flat. Therefore, cognitive dissonance half 1.
Regardless of the lackluster progress prospects seen by the WMC membership, what do companies assume they are going to be doing when it comes to employment? Surprisingly, they appear to see their workforces growing! Therefore, my cognitive dissonance, half 2.
Supply: WMC. Notes: n=180, 182, for Winter and Summer time, respectively. Survey respondents are members of WMC.
One attention-grabbing side of the Summer time 2024 report is that the time collection graph indicating the proportion of respondents who rated the Wisconsin economic system, included within the Winter 2024 report, was omitted. Presumably, this was as a result of the graph didn’t match the WMC narrative. As a way to full the image, I add in an edited model of the Winter 2024 graph.
Word: Mild blue giant circle is Summer time 2024 remark. Supply: WMC, Wisconsin Employer Survey (January 2024), and edits by writer utilizing July 2024 survey.
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