Manufacturing in Recession? | Econbrowser

Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Right here’s an image of varied sequence related to the manufacturing sector.

Determine 1: Manufacturing manufacturing (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), combination hours (inexperienced, left scale), and actual valued added (pink), all in logs, 2007M12=0, and capability utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, proper scale). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Be aware: 2007M12 is NBER’s enterprise cycle peak. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA by way of FRED, NBER. 

With employment and manufacturing basically flat (however under end-2023 peaks), I’d be laborious pressed to say manufacturing is in recession, however right here recession is within the eye of the beholder (given there’s not a technical definition of recession for a subsector).

Be aware that GS believes the combination (NFP) benchmark revision of -818K is just too giant; quite, theyu consider that given lower than complete protection of QCEW and sure revisions, the combination revision is extra like -300K. This is able to counsel a smaller downward revision in manufacturing employment.