GDPNow Q3 progress nowcast now as much as 2.5%, from 2.1%.
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Survey of Skilled Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9/9 (blue sq.) and of 9/4 (blue open sq.), NY Fed (crimson triangle), St. Louis Fed (gentle inexperienced inverted triangle), Goldman Sachs (teal circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Nowcasts are as of 9/6 besides the place famous; nowcast ranges calculated iterating progress fee to reported 2017Q2 2nd launch GDP ranges. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, Philadelphia Fed for SPF, Atlanta Fed (9/9), NY Fed (9/6), St. Louis Fed (9/6), Goldman Sachs (9/6), and writer’s calculations.
The employment state of affairs and wholesale commerce studies raised the nowcast. Whereas consumption progress is nowcasted for 3.5%, vs. 3.8% on 8/30. What’s the relative accuracy of GDPNow? I’ve not seen current assessments, however right here’s DeutscheBank’s 2019 comparability.
Supply: Luzzetti, et al. “Monitoring the GDP trackers,” Deutsche Financial institution US Financial Views, 24 July 2019.
We at the moment are about 50 days out from the advance launch for Q3 (on 10/30), so GDPNow is about as correct on common because the Bloomberg consensus. (The NY Fed nowcast has been considerably revamped, so the MAE numbers proven above are not related.)
