Michigan Shopper Sentiment Up, Inflation Expectations Down

Determine 1: College of Michigan Shopper Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Shopper Confidence (tan, left scale), each demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the displayed pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Each day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The Information Index statement for September is thru 9/8/2024. Michigan sentiment for September is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich through FRED, Convention Board through Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and writer’s calculations.

Determine 1: 12 months-on-year precise CPI inflation (daring black), and anticipated inflation from College of Michigan (crimson), NY Fed (gentle inexperienced), Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE imply (sky blue squares), Cleveland Fed (pink), all in %. Michigan inflation expectations for September is preliminary.Supply: BLS, U.Michigan through FRED, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, and writer’s calculations.