Is Manufacturing In Recession? | Econbrowser

As of August, incorporating newest capability utilization and manufacturing knowledge, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face worth the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.

Determine 1: Manufacturing manufacturing (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), combination hours (inexperienced, left scale), and actual valued added (crimson), all in logs, 2021M07=0, and capability utilization in manufacturing, in % (black, proper scale). Supply: BLS through FRED, Federal Reserve, BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER. 

Be aware that 2023Q4 worth added was greater than in 2021Q4. Sadly, we don’t have knowledge additional than 2024Q1 (these knowledge might be reported by on 9/27).

The info in assist of a slowdown in manufacturing comes from diffusion indices, such because the ISM manufacturing PMI.

Supply: TradingEconomics.com. Blue is S&P, grey is ISM.