By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, we could have a Dwell Weblog of tonight’s Vice-Presidential debate. Doorways open at 8:30pm ET; the talk correct begins at 9:00pm.
I additionally had a scheduling debacle, so I’ll be taking part in catchup for a bit, right here. –lambert
Hen Track of the Day
Return to the mimidae!
Blue Mockingbird, Yecora, Km 261, Sonora, Mexico.
In Case You May Miss…
- Vance-Walz debate.
- Results of Helene on North Carolina election.
- Boeing and Longshoremen strikes..
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t flip the tide both. Regardless of the micturition and lamentation (very a lot together with my very own) concerning the Trump marketing campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Surroundings Favorable to GOP” on the problems) do be aware the regular deterioration in Kamala’s place within the (aggregated) prime battlegrounds. (In fact, we on the surface would possibly as properly be inspecting the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what is going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as properly be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher information, and have the scenario as underneath management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * Vance-Walz debate:
As soon as once more, doorways open for the Dwell Weblog at 8:30pm! Personally, I count on this debate to be extra fascinating than the Presidential debate, given the logorrhea of the earlier combatants. However Vance has written a e book, and Walz’s spouse, additionally a trainer, had 40 college students on their highschool debate staff, so possibly one thing rubbed off.
“JD Vance doesn’t suppose he wants debate prep to defeat Tim Walz” [Politico]. “‘Now we have properly developed views on public coverage so we don’t have to arrange that a lot,’ Vance mentioned in a Teamsters press name on Wednesday morning. ‘We really feel much more assured and albeit, you don’t have to arrange should you don’t have to cover what you say.’ His assertion was in some ways precisely why Republicans — and particularly Trump — proceed to assist him: He’s pithy, plainspoken and will get spirited with the media. And in contrast to Trump, he stays relentlessly on message and is called an agile debater.”
“Wish to Verify That Truth? For V.P. Debate Viewers, Simply Scan the Code” [New York Times]. “CBS Information, host of Tuesday’s vice-presidential matchup between Senator JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz, is utilizing know-how to attempt one thing new. A QR code — the checkerboard-like, black-and-white field that may be scanned by a smartphone — will seem onscreen for lengthy stretches of the CBS telecast. Viewers who scan the code will probably be directed to the CBS Information web site, the place a squad of about 20 CBS journalists will submit fact-checks of the candidates’ remarks in actual time. The code will seem solely on CBS; viewers who tune in on a distinct channel is not going to see it. (Almost each main community will simulcast the talk, beginning at 9 p.m. Japanese.) However it’s a novel method to information viewers, already accustomed to watching TV whereas hovering over a smartphone or laptop computer, to supplemental journalistic materials elsewhere.” • Could be good if customers may choose from a menu of QR codes, however no matter.
* * * NC: “How Helene’s destruction may have an effect on voting in North Carolina’s election” [News & Observer]. “Within the aftermath of Hurricane Helene’s destruction in Western North Carolina, considerations have emerged about whether or not residents affected by the storm will be capable to forged their ballots within the November election. Disruptions to the postal service, destruction of polling locations, lacking or broken IDs and extra may all pose challenges to voters with solely 36 days left till the election. ‘That is all a cascading sequence of disasters,’ Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County Board of Elections, mentioned.” • I ought to have added that mail-in ballots could be disrupted; fifty lashes with a moist noodle for Lambert. NOTE: Blue Buncombe County, house of Asheville, is the one county named.
PA: “Ballot reveals a good race in Pennsylvania, with warning indicators for Harris amongst older voters” [Politico]. “Harris is successful 49 % of seemingly voters, in contrast with 47 % for Trump and a pair of % for different candidates, the ballot performed by a bipartisan staff for AARP discovered. Three % are undecided…. Biden was down 5 share factors total in that April survey. Amongst voters aged 18 to 49, he was behind by 1 level; she is now forward by 14. He was dropping independents by 6 factors; she is successful them by 9. With Democrats, girls, suburban voters, rural voters and even voters with no faculty diploma, she is outperforming Biden. There’s a main voting bloc, although, amongst which she has slipped: seniors. Harris is dropping voters aged 65 and older by 7 factors, in contrast with 1 level for Biden. ‘Harris’ largest weak point is older voters. It’s the largest share of the citizens, and she or he is behind,’ mentioned Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose agency, Fabrizio Ward, helped conduct the AARP survey and in addition polls for the Trump marketing campaign. The economic system seems to be a giant cause why older voters want Trump to Harris. For voters aged 50 and up who ranked inflation and excessive costs as a prime situation, Trump has a 54-point lead.” • Older voters are essentially the most dependable, too.
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC September 23 | Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC September 28 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| New York[5] New York State, information September 27: |
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| Positivity | |
| Nationwide[7] Walgreens September 30: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21: |
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| Vacationers Knowledge | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 9: | Variants[10] CDC September 9: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. A lot much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* extremely popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however price noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Large drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings rose by 329,000 to eight.040 million in August 2024 from an upwardly revised 7.711 million in July and above market expectations of seven.655 million.”
Employment State of affairs: “United States Job Quits” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job quits within the US fell to three.084 million in August of 2024 from the downwardly revised 3.243 million within the earlier month, the bottom since August of 2020.”
Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US jumped to 58.6 in September 2024 from 56.4 in August, pointing to the best development price within the logistics sector in two years. The general index has now elevated for ten consecutive months, offering robust proof that the logistics business is again on stable footing.” • Impact of ILA strike not talked about.
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The S&P World US Manufacturing PMI was revised increased to 47.3 in September 2024 from a preliminary of 47, however remained the bottom since June 2023. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, with each output and new orders falling sharply as a result of weakened demand and political uncertainty.”
Provide Chain: “East and Gulf coast ports strike, with ILA longshoremen strolling off job from New England to Texas, stranding billions in commerce” [CNBC]. “Roughly 50,000 ILA union longshoremen have been strolling off the job at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports from New England to Texas beginning at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday after failing to succeed in an settlement with ports possession on a brand new contract, the union’s first strike since 1977. Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of {dollars} in commerce month-to-month transfer by means of the U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports. The Worldwide Longshoremen’s Affiliation, the biggest maritime union in North America, rejected a proposal from the port administration group USMX on Monday that included a wage hike over six years close to 50%.”
Provide Chain: “White Home left with few good choices as dockworkers stroll out” [CNN]. “For weeks, Cupboard-level officers throughout an array of companies have been preserving shut tabs on the negotiations between the Worldwide Longshoremen’s Affiliation and a consortium of firms managing ports alongside the East and Gulf coasts. White Home officers on Friday met with representatives from the consortium, the US Maritime Company, to encourage the affiliation to remain on the negotiating desk. In terms of brokering a possible deal, labor consultants say the White Home has simply two instruments: Utilizing the bully pulpit and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, which might power the longshore staff to get again on the job. President Joe Biden has despatched a transparent message that he has no plans to do the latter. ‘No,’ Biden advised reporters Sunday when requested whether or not he would intervene in a possible strike. ‘As a result of it’s collective bargaining, and I don’t imagine in Taft-Hartley.’ Breaking the strike could be a politically harmful transfer for Biden as his vice chairman, Kamala Harris, runs to succeed him within the Oval Workplace. With out taking that transfer, there’s not a lot else the White Home can do.” • Too unhealthy concerning the railroad staff, however it wasn’t an election 12 months.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Must Take a Cue From UPS and Pay Its Strikers” [Bloomberg]. “Boeing Co.’s labor negotiators ought to have paid extra consideration to how Carol Tomé, the chief government officer of United Parcel Service Inc., dealt with talks with its union final 12 months. UPS staff have been itching to strike, and the corporate was inevitably going to have to offer hefty raises. As a substitute of digging in over a few share factors on the wage will increase, risking a strike and creating extra animosity with its workforce, Tomé relented to the union’s calls for. The upper labor prices have squeezed margins, and buyers registered their dismay with a 27% drop within the share value because the tentative deal was introduced in July final 12 months. UPS prospects, although, have been grateful that Tomé averted the disruption a strike would have triggered. Tomé’s calculation was that even when she pushed the negotiations to the purpose of a strike, the corporate would have ended up in the identical place — a giant payout and expensive adjustments resembling including air con to new supply autos. The one distinction would have been the employee in poor health will and indignant prospects {that a} strike would have provoked. Automakers, however, let labor talks break down, they usually ended up agreeing to document pay will increase after a expensive six-week strike. Boeing has dug in its heels with placing machinists who’ve shut down factories for greater than every week, and it’s not working. The planemaker will greater than seemingly have to satisfy staff’ calls for to finish this damaging and expensive strike. Clients are upset that the delays in airplane deliveries will worsen. Suppliers are left at nighttime about how a lot they need to reduce on manufacturing, which hurts their staff and funds. Repairing the tradition of high quality and security on the manufacturing unit ground is in jeopardy. The strike is simply accelerating Boeing’s money burn, spurring Moody’s Scores to think about reducing the corporate’s debt score.” •
Manufacturing: “Over 40 Airways Might Be Flying Boeing Jets With Dangerous Rudder Components” [Jalopnik]. “The Nationwide Transportation Security Board warned over 40 international airways on Tuesday that their Boeing 737 planes could also be fitted with doubtlessly harmful rudder parts. The company recognized 271 elements that would fail and jam the rudder management system. The NTSB found the difficulty whereas investigating a February touchdown incident involving a United Airways flight arriving at Newark Liberty Worldwide Airport.” • Whoops.
Right now’s Concern & Greed Index: 68 Greed (earlier shut: 75 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Hreed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 1 at 1:46:30 PM ET.
Gallery
For Alma-Tadema stans:
Lengthy earlier than cinema, there was “cinematic” portray.
These work are centuries outdated, however appear to be stills from a high-budget film epic.
Listed here are some you have not seen earlier than — that may blow your thoughts… 🧵 pic.twitter.com/wdltpBWHY3
— Tradition Critic (@Culture_Crit) September 27, 2024
Information of the Wired
Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high-quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CC:
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