By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Hen Track of the Day
Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Montaña de Izopo–Sector Las Moras, Francisco Morazán, Honduras. “Longer reduce of quiet tune of clipped low phrases with sudden louder bursts interspersed, together with mechanical-sounding vocalizations. Additionally heard are Painted Redstart, Dusky-capped Flycatcher, Wilson’s Warbler, Orange-billed Nightingale-Thrush, and Bushy Woodpecker.”
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
- CIA Democrats.
- Kamala and Biden groups at odds.
- Trump singing and dancing City Corridor not the debacle portrayed.
- Boeing to borrow billions, delays 777X, plans drastic white-collar cuts.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than thirty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
For those who ignore the complete idea of margin of error and go together with the narrative, one other good week for Trump, particularly in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, within the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. After all, we on the skin may as effectively be analyzing the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly may as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the scenario as underneath management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * “Trump is in a greater polling spot now than he was towards Clinton or Biden” [USA Today]. “If polls are any information – and there are lots of questions on them – Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is in higher form now than he was presently in 2020 and in his profitable White Home marketing campaign of 2016. Sure, Trump trails Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in most polls. However the all-important caveat is that he’s down towards the incumbent vp by smaller margins than he confronted in his first two basic elections – each of which noticed him rating increased with precise voters than those who responded to pollsters.” • Useful chart:
* * * Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris’ press tour was a missed alternative” [MSNBC]. “And that’s the drawback: The Harris marketing campaign carried out this tour not as a result of it had one thing new to say, however as a result of it wanted to redirect the media narrative about its candidate. ‘There’s at instances an impression that her marketing campaign consists virtually fully of pivots,’ Alex Shephard neatly noticed in The New Republic earlier this week, whereas a New York Instances headline stated she ‘Continues to Bob and Weave’ in interviews. All of it provides to the very temper the press tour was alleged to dispel.” And: “Because the media tour got here to an in depth with a Univision city corridor on Thursday night time, I used to be left with the identical imprecise impression I had earlier than the press tour — which makes that tour an enormous missed alternative. There was no second akin to Invoice Clinton blowing the horn on ‘The Arsenio Corridor Present’ in 1992, nothing stunning or surprising. Working out the clock might [???] not be an choice. ‘Polls coming in present Harris peaked and interviews not serving to. Swing states trending away from Harris,’ veteran pollster Mark Penn wrote in a social media publish. ‘It’s not over till it’s over and that is nonetheless on a razor’s edge so it will probably flip again however that’s a good learn of latest polling.’ And in The New York Instances, the previous Obama communications director Daniel Pfeiffer identified that Trump is making vital inroads with youthful males by showing on nontraditional podcasts and streaming exhibits. Pfeiffer noticed that 13 million individuals watched Trump’s interview with comic Theo Von, ‘about twice the viewership of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz’s a lot ballyhooed interview with Dana Bash of CNN.’”
Kamala (D): “Contained in the media blitz: three days on the marketing campaign path with Kamala Harris” [Guardian]. “She was comfy in her pores and skin.” • I haven’t heard that one deployed in years.
Kamala (D): A lot for Black Insurrectionist? He of the Tim Walz oppo?
Why did Black Insurrectionist change his bio since yesterday? The place’s the subsequent drops? I believe I’ve/we’ve been duped pic.twitter.com/cX0uU6mKm1
— 🇺🇸ULTRA MAGA 1776🇺🇸 (@MAGAMARIE3) October 14, 2024
Notice the followers on the left hand display screen shot, who disappeared on the fitting hand display screen shot. And if you’ve misplaced Megyn Kelly:
I don’t know whether or not the stuff being peddled by a sure X account re: Tim Walz has even a scintilla of fact behind it. I see the various apparent crimson flags.
What I can report is {that a} month in the past this similar account claimed he had an ABC whistleblower (1) alleging severe moral…— Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) October 14, 2024
* * * Kamala (D): “Democratic voter registration raises crimson flags for Harris” [The Hill]. “Democrats’ voter registration benefit has dropped in three key battleground states — Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada — elevating a crimson flag for Vice President Harris as specialists cite an absence of enthusiasm for the Biden administration model and the Democratic Get together, typically, as issues.” And: “David Paleologos, the director of the Political Analysis Heart at Suffolk College in Boston, stated Democrats had a few 666,000-person voter registration benefit over Republicans in Pennsylvania in 2020, which has shrunk to a 354,000-person benefit in 2024. He stated the Democrats’ voter registration benefit in North Carolina has shrunk from 393,000 voters in 2020 to roughly 130,000 voters in 2024. ‘The final shift has been away from being registered as a Democrat over the past 4 years,’ Paleologos instructed The Hill.’ It’s been extra of a lower of registered Democrats’ than a surge in Republican voter registrations, he defined. ‘I don’t assume lots of people have actually put their arms round the truth that when Trump received North Carolina in 2020, there have been like 390,000 extra registered Democrats and he nonetheless received, and right now the benefit of Democrats over Republicans is simply like 130,000. It’s been reduce by two-thirds of a bonus,” he stated.” And: “In Nevada, Paleologos stated Democrats have seen their voter registration benefit fall away. He stated Democrats’ had a web registration benefit of almost 79,000 in 2020. It has since fallen to a web benefit of 29,000 registered voters. ‘It could possibly be sufficient to maintain it shut, or it might go to Trump, simply because they’ve misplaced 50,000 web registered Democrats,’ he stated.” •
Kamala (D): “CNN’s Enten: GOP Has Made Large Positive factors In Get together Registration, Identification Since 2020” [RealClearPolitics]. “CNN’s Harry Enten checked out occasion registration knowledge within the swing states and nationally forward of the 2024 election, which he says in comparison with previous elections, suggests Republicans are on monitor to win…. The query is: The place are they choosing up floor? This, to me, says all of it. For those who have a look at Pennsylvania counties the place the GOP has gained in registration, in counties the place lower than 50% of the inhabitants is non-college white voters, Republicans have gained only a level. However in areas the place over 50% are non-college whites, have a look at this—Republicans have gained six factors on common. They’re choosing up floor within the areas you’d anticipate: non-college white-dominated areas, coal nation within the northeast, southwest exterior of Pittsburgh. The underside line is, the registration developments we’ve been seeing over the previous few cycles — with Republicans dominating amongst non-college white voters — are very a lot displaying up in occasion registration.” And: “Get together registration is if you’re truly registered with a celebration. Get together ID is if you say, ‘I really feel like a Democrat right now’ or ‘I really feel like a Republican.’ They’re correlated, however they’re not precisely the identical. The GOP leads by a degree in occasion identification proper now. The common when the Republican Get together loses is the Democrats forward by eight. When the Republican Get together wins, the common occasion ID benefit for Democrats is at three. Republicans proper now, are doing even higher than the common once they win. If there’s one little nugget that I believe Republicans are actually useful for this occasion ID and this occasion registration knowledge, it actually factors in a superb route for them and for Donald Trump.”
“Harris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too ‘unstable and unhinged’ to be president” [NBC]. “To make up for any losses in rural areas, Harris’ marketing campaign has sought to court docket Nikki Haley voters from the GOP primaries, who’re concentrated largely in well-educated suburbs and will assist Harris develop her coalition and enhance on Biden’s 2020 margins.” • Therefore, Dick Cheney’s spawn.
* * * Kamala (D): “Harris Fights to Counter Trump’s Attraction With Black Males” [Wall Street Journal]. On Obama’s intervention: “”‘Whereas I perceive the sentiment of getting a need to see elevated engagement, chastising voters has by no means labored, and it received’t work this time both,’ stated [Quentin James, founder and president of the Collective PAC, a pro-Harris group], who gave the Harris marketing campaign suggestions on the brand new set of insurance policies rolled out on Monday geared toward enhancing the financial place of Black males. Requested if it might be useful for Obama to reiterate these feedback at future marketing campaign stops, James stated: ‘If the objective is to extend Black male engagement, hell no.’” Extra: “The brand new insurance policies and soccer meetup [stereotype] are a part of Harris’s newest efforts to succeed in out to Black males, a core constituency for the occasion. Polling exhibits a possible lack of enthusiasm amongst these voters with early voting already underneath method in some states. Securing the assist of Black males might show decisive in key battleground races, notably as Harris makes an attempt to drive up turnout in locations like Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. The vp desires to supply a million forgivable enterprise loans for Black entrepreneurs to make use of to start out companies, create extra coaching and apprenticeship packages and research ailments, akin to diabetes and sickle cell anemia, that predominantly have an effect on Black males…. The Harris marketing campaign’s self-described ‘alternative agenda for Black males’ would regulate cryptocurrency and digital currencies to guard Black buyers, promote extra Black males into the instructing occupation and reiterate the vp’s assist for legalizing marijuana.” • Perhaps I didn’t get the memo, however I don’t see how crypto matches in right here. Additionally, talking of an “alternative financial system,” how about an amnesty for the marijuana growers and sellers who constructed a enterprise sector now value billions? Legalization is just not sufficient.
Kamala (D): Perhaps the the “Manly Man” advert wasn’t geared toward males in any respect? Hat tip Nippersdad:
Perhaps I’m assuming the Harris hive thoughts is extra Machiavellian than it truly is, however possibly the advert — hear me out — was geared toward suburban ladies? (“We promise males will likely be as males are on this advert”). Form of a really mild contact model of Lysistratic Non-Motion. Only a thought! And on white ladies:
Harris is doing the most effective for a Democratic presidential candidate amongst white ladies within the twenty first century… That is large trigger they make up such a big chunk of the citizens…
Why is Harris doing so effectively? It will seem that abortion rights is a driving pressure… pic.twitter.com/zQHFifAwcf
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2024
* * * * * * PA: “Harris rallies in a Pennsylvania bellwether county, calling Trump too ‘unstable and unhinged’ to be president” [NBC]. “ERIE, Pa. — Vice President Kamala Harris rallied a packed crowd Monday night time in Erie County, a bellwether that has a knack for predicting who carries Pennsylvania, having mirrored the end result of this significant battleground state within the final 4 elections. Harris sharpened her assaults on Donald Trump, utilizing a giant display screen to play clips of the previous president calling for outlawing dissent and criticisms amongst ‘the enemy inside.’” The large display screen is new, I believe. Extra: “[Erie’s] median revenue is decrease than the nationwide common, as is its share of college-educated individuals…. Fetterman received the state by maximizing votes within the metropolitan areas and limiting his margins of defeat within the red-trending rural areas. Now, he’s making an attempt to assist Harris do the identical. Whereas Obama and Gov. Josh Shapiro rallied Thursday in Pittsburgh, Fetterman toured the crimson counties to make the case for her…. ‘Generally it’s not about turning these counties blue. You’re not going to alter the tradition of rural-county Pennsylvania. It’s about reaching out to reachable individuals,’ he stated. ‘I’d be stunned if she wins by 3 factors. She is going to win Pennsylvania, however I’d anticipate it may be nearer than that.’”
PA: “How Pittsburgh’s Suburbs May Flip Pennsylvania to Trump” [RealClearPennsylvania]. ” As an alternative, the main focus lies on subdivision-spawned locations like Cranberry Township to the north, the bed room communities of southern Butler County, and the once-solid Rust Belt Democrat precincts of Washington County to the south. These areas, a lot of which have been dependable elements of the Democratic coalition for the reason that time of the New Deal, are trending Republican in ways in which ought to alarm occasion strategists. This oversight is partly comprehensible – the Philadelphia metro space is considerably bigger (6.3 million individuals versus Pittsburgh’s 2.37 million), richer, and several other hours nearer to main media markets. Nevertheless it’s a mistake that might result in how-could-it-happen-here headlines on election night time if the GOP secures a win on the again of southwestern Pennsylvania’s suburban voters. The numbers paint a stark image of this evolution. In 2000, Democrats carried Allegheny County, residence to Pittsburgh, plus the seven surrounding counties by almost 86,000 votes. By 2020, regardless of large Democratic features inside Pittsburgh metropolis limits, this similar area swung to the Republicans by 38,000 votes. In a state determined by razor-thin margins in latest presidential contests, this 124,000-vote swing is seismic. Cranberry Township exemplifies this variation. As soon as a sleepy rural neighborhood, it’s now a booming strip mall and chain eatery-lined suburb of over 30,000 individuals, greater than 90% of whom are white, with a decidedly Republican lean. In 2020, Donald Trump carried Cranberry with over 60% of the vote, a margin unthinkable just some many years in the past when union-affiliated Democratic voters dominated the area. The transformation is much more pronounced in Washington County, as soon as the very definition of a union stronghold. Trump received the county by a staggering 22-point margin in 2020.”
PA: “Every week in a swing state taught me rather a lot in regards to the Maga cult, and gave me hope for Kamala Harris” [Guardian]. Value a learn, however holy moley. This editorial observe sums it up: “This text was amended on 13 October 2024 as a result of an earlier model stated that Hurricane Helene “ripped by way of the south-west”. The truth is the hurricane affected the south-east area.” Here’s a author who actually is aware of America!
Spook Nation
“FBI’s function in Hunter Biden laptop computer scandal is worse than you realize” [Andrew McCarthy, FOX]. “Nonetheless, the enduring relevance of the laptop computer is just not as a Biden story, however as a narrative of the political corruption of the federal government’s law-enforcement and intelligence equipment – pillars of our rule of regulation and our nationwide safety. Take into consideration this: The FBI took possession of the laptop computer in December 2019, and shortly authenticated it – not exhausting to do as a result of there was a mountain of publicly out there data for functions of corroborating the info, which was incontestably Hunter Biden’s. What’s the importance of that? Effectively, Election Day wasn’t till November 3, 2020. Therefore, whereas early voting was already underway within the weeks earlier than the election, the FBI had already identified for almost a 12 months that the laptop computer was the true deal. Regardless of that, the bureau induced main social media titans, akin to Twitter (now X) and Fb, to suppress derogatory reporting in regards to the Bidens – particularly, the New York Submit’s mid-October 2020 reporting on the laptop computer. How? By deceptively intimating that the Submit’s reporting was possible the results of an affect operation carried out by Russian intelligence. In actuality, this was an affect operation carried out by present and former U.S. intelligence officers. The FBI was not alone. The federal government’s ‘Intelligence Neighborhood’ routinely shares data. The IC, too, is susceptible to hype Russian ‘interference’ in U.S. elections. But, such ‘affect operations’ are longstanding: Moscow interfered in American politics all through the Chilly Conflict; it has continued to take action for the reason that Soviet Union’s fall as much as the current day. Affect ops are additionally reciprocal: U.S. spy businesses routinely sought to affect Soviet politics and, now, search to undermine Putin. In the event that they didn’t, what good would they be? For all of the heavy-breathing by the media-Democrat advanced, fashionable Russia is a basket-case nation run by a mafia-style regime whose election-influence ops are sometimes laughably amateurish. They’re, furthermore, a negligible ripple within the multi-billion-dollar ocean of American marketing campaign messaging.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Realignment and Legitimacy
“ActBlue lobbies up amid GOP probes” [Politico]. “ActBlue, the left’s favored on-line donation platform, is popping to Ok Avenue because it appears to beat again accusations of lax safety and donor fraud introduced ahead by state and federal Republican officers. Covington & Burling’s Matthew Shapanka, a former Senate Guidelines aide who helped craft the up to date bipartisan Electoral Rely Act reform invoice in 2022, started lobbying for ActBlue on Sept. 9 on the Safe Dealing with of Web Digital Donations — or SHIELD — Act, in keeping with a disclosure submitting. The SHIELD Act had been launched days earlier by Home Administration Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.). It stemmed from an investigation into considerations that ActBlue wasn’t verifying its donors correctly as a result of it didn’t require them to offer the three-digit CVV codes on the again of their playing cards. Amongst different issues, Steil’s invoice would bar political committees from accepting contributions if a CVV code was not offered and would additionally bar donations made utilizing present playing cards, pre-paid credit score or debit playing cards or present certificates.”
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
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Keep protected on the market!
Airborne Transmission: Covid
“Can the an infection threat in elevators be negligible? A comparative research of airborne an infection likelihood in elevators and convention rooms” [Energy and Buildings]. From the Summary: “The outcomes confirmed that the an infection likelihood within the elevator with 5 min (common 2.70%) was increased than that within the convention room with 50 min (common 1.77%).” • As Michael Osterholm ought to know.
Transmission: H5N1
Ulp (1):
Ulp (2):
“milking: ~12 hours a day in shut contact w/ cows.
udders ~ excessive viral masses
want PPE to cease H5N1 fowl flu and shield farmworkers, however exhausting to put on for hours in warmth.
want full head helmet w/ powered, purified airflow.”https://t.co/qwMz0MelAD@RanuDhillon https://t.co/kTxu72t2v1
— Devabhaktuni “Sri” Srikrishna (@sri_srikrishna) October 15, 2024
If we have been planning for a second pandemic — on prime of Covid already weakened immunue programs at a inhabitants degree — it’s to see how we could possibly be doing a greater job. And wastewater:
Vaccines
“New Nasal Vaccines Supply Higher Safety from COVID and Flu—No Needle Wanted” [Scientific American]. “Vaccines delivered by way of the nostril are actually being examined for a number of ailments. Within the U.S., early scientific trials are displaying success. Two of those vaccines have generated a number of immune system responses towards the COVID-causing virus in individuals who acquired them by way of a puff up the nostril; earlier this 12 months their makers acquired almost $20 million from Undertaking NextGen, the Biden-Harris administration’s COVID medical initiative. Researchers are optimistic {that a} nasal spray delivering a COVID vaccine could possibly be prepared for the U.S. as quickly as 2027. Though latest efforts have centered on inoculations towards SARS-CoV-2, nasal vaccines might additionally shield us towards the flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and extra.” • 2027 [bangs head on desk].
Sequelae: Covid
“COVID-19 raises the stakes for coronary heart assaults, strokes, and even demise lengthy after an infection, new research finds” [Fortune]. “Virtually from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and medical specialists feared–and infrequently loudly warned–that the virus wasn’t like different infections that individuals may encounter throughout, say, flu season. SARS-CoV-2 was completely different. It was worse. And the potential long-term results, as we reported two years in the past, have been much more worrisome. A brand new large-scale research places these longer-range considerations into daring aid. The outcomes are as unforgiving as many specialists had hypothesized. The research, involving almost a quarter-million adults, discovered that these with any kind of COVID-19 an infection in 2020 had twice the danger of struggling a serious cardiac occasion—a coronary heart assault, stroke, and even demise—within the three years after a prognosis than those that weren’t contaminated. Individuals whose infections have been extreme sufficient to warrant hospitalization confronted almost a 4 instances better threat of a serious cardiac occasion or demise than the uninfected group. ‘These findings are plain and intensely troubling,’ says David Putrino, the director of the Cohen Heart for Restoration from Advanced Persistent Sickness at Mount Sinai College of Medication. ‘The importance of this work is that our present public well being coverage surrounding COVID-19 is insufficient. Individuals must be knowledgeable of the dangers they’re incurring to their long-term well being by being repeatedly contaminated with SARS-CoV-2.’” • Oh, yeah, private threat evaluation, that’s been working nice. Why not clear the air?
“Lengthy COVID Charges in Youngsters Revised Upward: What to Know” [MedScape]. “In probably the most expansive research of its form, researchers have for the primary time proven severe and prevalent signs of lengthy COVID in children and youths. The August research, printed within the Journal of the American Medical Affiliation, is among the many first massive complete research of the dysfunction on this age group. The research, which adopted 5367 kids, discovered that 20% of youngsters (ages 6-11) and 14% of teenagers met researchers’ threshold for lengthy COVID. Till now, analysis has been missing as a result of kids have been considered much less vulnerable to each acute COVID-19 and lengthy COVID, specialists say. However by some estimates, as much as 5.8 million children and youths have the dysfunction. Research writer Rachel Gross, MD, an affiliate professor within the departments of pediatrics and inhabitants well being at NYU Langone, is in step with the proportion of adults identified with lengthy COVID.” • Bear in mind at first, when the minimizers instructed us kids didn’t even get Covid? Good instances. Useful chart:
Social Norming
One more reason for denial:
my dad uncovered me to covid, i acquired it, acquired longcovid, misplaced every little thing. we havent spoken because it occurred, he hasnt even tried to nor stated he loves me since i acquired sick. he disappeared relatively than admit he tousled. https://t.co/Z5zCSQSWLT
— 🎨Artsy M*rxist 🎨 (commissions waitlist open) (@ArtsyMarx1st) October 15, 2024
Rule #2 is common in scope:
* * * TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
Wastewater This week[1] CDC October 5 Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):
Variants [3] CDC October 12 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5
Hospitalization New York[5] New York State, knowledge October 10: Nationwide [6] CDC September 21:
Positivity Nationwide[7] Walgreens October 7: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5:
Vacationers Information Positivity[9] CDC September 16: Variants[10] CDC September 16:
Deaths Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right now; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Nonetheless some sizzling spots, however I can’t draw circles round complete areas this week. Excellent news!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* extremely popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however value noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Undoubtedly down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “every little thing in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) Large drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted to -11.9 in October 2024, down from 11.5 in September and stunning analysts who anticipated it at 3.8. This marks the worst studying since Might, pointing to a renewed contraction within the New York State and at a strong tempo.”
* * * Manufacturing: “Boeing’s disaster is getting worse. Now it’s borrowing tens of billions of {dollars}” [CNN]. “In a regulatory submitting early Tuesday, the corporate introduced plans to borrow $10 billion from a consortium of banks. It additionally individually introduced plans to lift $25 billion by promoting inventory and debt. The $10 billion borrowing plans could be included within the $25 billion that Boeing filed to lift…. Boeing’s credit standing has plunged to the bottom investment-grade degree – simply above “junk bond” standing – and main credit standing businesses have warned Boeing is at risk of being downgraded to junk. That may elevate its value of borrowing.”
Manufacturing: “Official: Boeing 777X supply delayed till a minimum of 2026” [Mile Lion]. “Up until lately, Boeing was nonetheless making optimistic noises a few late 2025 debut for the plane, with Emirates CEO Tim Clark stating on the 2023 Dubai Airshow that he hoped to get his first B777-9 by October 2025. However that was all the time going to be a tall order, and now we now have official affirmation of what’s maybe the worst-kept secret in aviation: the Boeing 777X is formally delayed until a minimum of 2026. Consider, it’s not simply the work stoppage that’s the issue. The B777X has had a torrid time with its certification, with the FAA chiding the airline at one level that its proposed certification schedule was ‘outdated and not mirror the programme actions.’ Whereas the all-important Kind Inspection Authorisation (TIA) was granted in July 2024, enabling the corporate to start the certification course of, it’s not all been easy crusing. Simply a few months in the past, the check fleet was grounded after a routine post-flight inspection revealed the failure of a thrust hyperlink that mounts the engine to the plane.” • Yikes.
Manufacturing: “Emirates’ Clark raises ‘looming’ specter of Boeing chapter safety” [The Air Current]. “In an e mail to The Air Present following the introduced Oct. 11 delay to the certification of Boeing’s 777-9 flagship jetliner, [Emirates president Sir Tim Clark, Boeing’s largest twin-aisle jet customer,] stated, ‘Except the corporate is ready to elevate funds by way of a Rights Situation, I see an imminent funding downgrade with Chapter 11 looming on the horizon.’” • Or nationalization.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Is Flexing the Monetary Muscle It Has Left” [Bloomberg]. The deck: “Buyers are betting {that a} backlog of just about 5,500 plane will ultimately unlock a mountain of money.” Extra: “Effectively, the corporate has about 5,500 plane that it has already offered and solely must assemble and ship. Buyers see a mountain of money locked up in that backlog. All the corporate has to do is settle a nasty strike of 33,000 machinists, revamp its work tradition to place high quality above all, stabilize its provide chain, end work on the brand new 777X plane and crank out planes. In fewer phrases, Boeing must execute. It is a daunting process, and most buyers imagine the corporate has lastly chosen the fitting particular person to drag off this historic turnaround after Kelly Ortberg was employed as chief govt officer in August. The thermometer for investor sentiment round Boeing’s skill to proper the ship will likely be mirrored within the value of the brand new shares, which might elevate $10 billion or extra to assist shore up its funds.” • So I suppose that’s why Ortberg is busting the machinist’s chops? For “investor sentiment”?
Manufacturing: “Boeing layoff plan suggests deep white-collar job cuts” [Seattle Times]. “The exclusion for now of 33,000 Machinists from the deliberate cuts signifies that Boeing can attain the ten% goal acknowledged within the slides for the Business Airplanes unit solely by way of deep cuts among the many white-collar employees, together with engineers and nonunion salaried staff…. Maybe the pondering is that shedding Machinists now may inflame passions and make the strike harder to settle. If that’s so, blue-collar layoffs might come later. Nonetheless, the necessity for the layoffs has little to do with the Machinists’ strike. It’s a restructuring by new CEO Kelly Ortberg designed to handle the broader and deeper issues Boeing faces….The one method ahead for Boeing is to start out constructing planes once more and to ramp up manufacturing again to the charges deliberate earlier than the January blowout. To realize these charges, it had been hiring machinists at a speedy clip. Each time the strike ends, it is going to want most of these machinists able to swing into motion.”
* * * As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 74 Greed (earlier shut: 76 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 70 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.
The
PresentCinemaThe manufacturing course of for silent movies:
On this present day in 1893, silent famous person Lillian Gish was born in Springfield, Ohio. In 1988, I wrote to her asking if silent movies had precise dialogue written out within the scripts or if there was only a basic description of what was being stated. This was her exceptional reply. pic.twitter.com/Tzv8EgnZhz
— Steve Stoliar (@StoliarSteve) October 14, 2024
Picture E-book
Through alert reader Wukchumi:
“Time is what you make of it.” I want!
Class Warfare
Slaves (implicit):
yeah the clear objective of this expertise is to have the ability to outsource in-person service jobs to hyper-exploited employees within the world south, not liberate human labor from service work. https://t.co/AvXwuqtVlH
— Cassie Pritchard (@hecubian_devil) October 13, 2024
After all, the objective is by no means to “liberate human labor.” Who could be foolish sufficient to think about that?
Slaves (specific). ANC = African Nationwide Congress:
Think about having a housekeeper that does not vote ANC, would not have 55 uncle’s funerals to attend yearly, will not steal your meals, and also you solely should pay for it as soon as?
Signal me up pic.twitter.com/IW8XrREn5Q
— Keanu (@Keanubtc) October 11, 2024
“You solely should pay for it as soon as.” Certainly. Now if we are able to simply get them to breed…
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired right now.* * * Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “Right here in Westminster, California, a rose society lives on the Civic middle, so, as a result of their many gardens of roses, I’ve an considerable provide of rose pictures. Sorry if the border is a bit a lot. Be at liberty to crop.”
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Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
For those who hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on tips on how to ship a test. Thanks!
