Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out right now; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS monitoring unchanged at 3.2%.
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Abstract of Financial Projections median iterated off of third launch (inverted mild inexperienced triangle), GDPNow as of 10/9 (mild blue sq.), NY Fed nowcast as of 10/11 (crimson triangles), St Louis Fed information nowcast as of 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs monitoring as of 10/9 (inexperienced +), FT-Sales space as of 9/14 iterated off of third launch (blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Ranges calculated by iterating progress fee on ranges of GDP, apart from Survey of Skilled Forecasters. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and writer’s calculations.
The Lewis-Merten-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (for information out there via 10/5) is at 2.10% AR, whereas the corresponding Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index is at -0.11% (so 1.89% if 2% is pattern). Onerous to see a recession in information out there via early October, then.
Lastly, with these estimates out, I welcome a brand new member to the “recession camp”: Mike Shedlock. As well as, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge have backdated the recession’s begin to 2022.
