2:00PM Water Cooler 10/23/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Track of the Day

I assumed I might strive some nightingales….

Frequent Nightingale, Sotos de Albolafia, Córdoba, Andalucía, Spain.

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. 2024 Opinion-havers opine, two weeks out.
2. Trump media blitz (Rogan; Carlson).
3. Kamala and Biden’s decline (her view vs. the donor’s view).
4. Boeing satellite tv for pc explodes; Ortberg seeks tradition change.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Much less tjhwo weeks to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

Lambert right here: Massive Mo shifts towards Trump, this week, even in WI (that’s, for those who ignore your entire idea of margin of error). In fact, we on the surface would possibly as effectively be analyzing the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, particularly, who will decide the result of the election however would possibly as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher information, and have the state of affairs as underneath management as it may be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

“Two Weeks to Go, however Solely One Technique to Keep Calm” [New York Times]. “‘Preserve calm and throw it within the common’ is one of the simplest ways for a voracious client of polling information to remain sane this election season…. To place this yr’s post-Labor Day race into some historic polling context, I checked out how a lot one incessantly cited polling common, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved going again by the 2008 election…. In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain truly held near a three-point lead in nationwide polls, however by Election Day, issues had swung closely towards Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics common exhibiting Obama main by round seven factors — a 10-point vary of outcomes over the course of about two months…. . In 2020, a race wherein Joe Biden persistently led within the nationwide polls, the polling common nonetheless moved in a variety from round Mr. Biden +6 to Mr. Biden +10. This yr? Since Labor Day, the polls have moved from a high-water mark for Kamala Harris of +2.2 to a current slim lead of simply +0.9. So once we say the race is barely budging, it’s barely budging,” And: “Trump’s very well-defined model picture anchors the election, leaving a really slender band wherein the race can commerce.” I don’t assume an election is a market, or a vote is a commerce. Extra: ” I additionally assume there’s the likelihood that one thing methodological is behind the steadiness we see within the averages. As a result of some pollsters are weighting their surveys to a reasonably mounted assumption about what the voters will appear to be, together with with regard to partisan make-up, it prevents numbers from transferring as a lot as they could in any other case if the partisan make-up of their samples might float freely.” • Hmm.

* * *

“James Carville: Three Causes I’m Sure Kamala Harris Will Win” [New York Times]. “Ms. Harris can be elected the following president of america. Of this, I’m sure. Listed below are three causes: [1] Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time can be no completely different… There merely don’t appear to be sufficient voters — even within the battleground states — who prove at Mr. Trump’s behest anymore when he’s merely preaching to his base. He has not discovered from his electoral losses nor finished the mandatory work to assemble a broad electoral coalition in 2024. [2] Cash issues, and Ms. Harris has it in droves….. Along with her subject operation transferring like an amazing machine, it appears doubtless there has by no means been a larger disparity in voter contact efforts…. [3] It’s only a feeling. My ultimate motive is one hundred pc emotional. We’re always advised that America is simply too divided, too hopelessly tormented by tribalism, to understand the stakes. That’s plain mistaken…. In two weeks, we not solely have an opportunity to elect Kamala Harris as president, however an opportunity to carry finality to the sordid profession of Donald Trump and drive MAGA into a protracted remission.” • “Remission,” eh?

“Right here’s What My Intestine Says Concerning the Election. However Don’t Belief Anybody’s Intestine, Even Mine” [Nate Silver, New York Times]. “In an election the place the seven battleground states are all polling inside a share level or two, 50-50 is the one accountable forecast. Because the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is kind of precisely the place my mannequin has had it. But once I ship this unsatisfying information, I inevitably get a query: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your intestine say?’ So OK, I’ll inform you. My intestine says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it’s true for a lot of anxious Democrats.” On the polling: “As an alternative [of shy Trump voters], the doubtless downside is what pollsters name nonresponse bias….. Trump supporters usually have decrease civic engagement and social belief, to allow them to be much less inclined to finish a survey from a information group. Pollsters try to right for this downside with more and more aggressive data-massaging strategies, like weighing by academic attainment (college-educated voters are extra doubtless to reply to surveys) and even by how folks say they voted previously. There’s no assure any of this may work. If Mr. Trump does beat his polling, there can have been not less than one clear signal of it: Democrats not have a constant edge in social gathering identification — about as many individuals now determine as Republicans.” However: “Right here’s one other counterintuitive discovering: It’s surprisingly doubtless that the election gained’t be a photograph end…. With polling averages so shut, even a small systematic polling error just like the one the trade skilled in 2016 or 2020 might produce a cushty Electoral School victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump. In accordance with my mannequin, there’s a couple of 60 p.c probability that one candidate will sweep not less than six of seven battleground states…. Don’t be stunned if a comparatively decisive win for one of many candidates is within the playing cards — or if there are greater shifts from 2020 than most individuals’s guts would possibly inform them.” • I assume we’ll see!

* * *

“The voters is altering. Right here’s what which means for Trump and Harris” [Ron Brownstein, CNN]. “The teams that Harris wants to offer her profitable margins are the non-White and college-educated White voters (particularly girls in every case). The truth that each of these teams are growing within the voters, whereas Trump’s greatest cohort is shrinking, might give Harris a small swell in her sails. “The rising components of the inhabitants are leaning Democrat, even on this time” when so many citizens are discontented with circumstances within the nation, Frey stated. The truth that girls are prone to forged extra ballots than males in all of the swing states, he believes, will present a small raise to Harris as effectively.” • Abortion + the warfare machine appears to be Harris’s view of a profitable method for college-educated White girls… Commentary:

A fairly necessary improvement: Harris seems to be barely outperforming Biden 2020 amongst Trump’s base of non-college White voters.

That is key as a result of they make up a ton of the voters, particularly in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she’s holding her personal in MI, PA & WI. pic.twitter.com/ww9pnp3DxY

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 21, 2024

“Donald Trump Dropping ‘Core Group’ Very important in 3 Battleground States” [Newsweek]. “Political analyst Harry Enten’s evaluation reveals Trump is main nationally amongst noncollege educated white voters by 27 factors, down from 31 factors in 2020 and 33 factors in 2016. ‘Which may not look like rather a lot, however on condition that we’re seeing these double digit positive aspects amongst Black voters or amongst Hispanic voters in a few of the polls, the truth that we’re seeing this core group of supporters truly transferring away from him, not simply off of the 2016 baseline, however the 2020 baseline as effectively, I believe that’s a fairly fascinating improvement,’ Enten stated… Enten stated that the shift mattered as a result of noncollege educated white voters make up 40 p.c of the voters nationally, however 51 p.c of the voters in the important thing battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin…. ‘,’ Enten defined. Enten’s evaluation additionally revealed that Trump’s vote share amongst noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, together with his lead at present standing at 19 factors, in comparison with 22 factors in 2020 and 25 factors in 2016. ‘,’ Enten stated. ‘And when you’ve a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, amongst his core group that makes up the vast majority of voters, it will possibly make up for large shifts amongst smaller teams within the voters and that is why Kamala Harris continues to be within the ball recreation proper now.’” • Hmm.

“2024 Election May Hinge on Tiny Shifts within the Citizens” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. ” This apparently very shut presidential election displays a deeply divided voters the place the potential modifications in both route all of us discuss always are glacial and arguably self-canceling..,. Very massive variations within the route of the nation will move from tiny shifts in a single route or one other of a carefully divided voters. It’s why nervousness ranges are so excessive proper now amongst these paying avid consideration to politics, though the result might rely on “low-propensity voters” barely paying consideration in any respect.”

“Citizen Forecasting of the 2024 Presidential Election: Final Soundings” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “Asking individuals who they consider will win the election, versus who they’ll vote for, could be an efficient device for attempting to determine who’s favored in an election. A collection of 4 completely different polls asking People who they consider will win the election confirmed that extra anticipated Donald Trump to win through the summer season, however extra just lately these expectations have moved in favor of Kamala Harris.” A Keynsian magnificence contest! Extra: “A rising physique of proof signifies that ‘citizen forecasting‘ (CF), because the latter methodology has been referred to as, makes for extra correct predictions of the winner. Certainly, research of CF in america and the UK, in addition to work on different democracies (similar to Canada, France, or Germany) have demonstrated that voter expectations outperform voter intentions when it comes to predictive accuracy, yielding the next stage of statistical and substantive significance. Impressed by this spectacular monitor file, we’ve got been systematically recording citizen forecasts with regard to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, by way of nationally consultant samples of American voters, as drawn by the Verasight survey crew.” And: “This present citizen forecast factors to a Harris victory in November.” However: “Verasight polls performed June 20-26, July 20-22, Aug. 20-26, . N = 750 for all 4 polls.” • The final polling was nonetheless throughout Harris’s honeymoon interval, three weeks in the past. And that’s a very long time in politics.

* * *

“Will lengthy COVID sway the 2024 election? These Rutgers researchers assume it might” [USA Today]. “An ageing U.S. inhabitants and the rise of lengthy COVID imply voters with disabilities might have extra of an impression on the upcoming election than ever earlier than, a brand new Rutgers College report finds…. Between ageing, lengthy COVID and different components, one in six eligible voters within the U.S. now has a incapacity of some kind, the Rutgers researchers discovered. That’s double the expansion charge of voters with out disabilities, their report stated…. Traditionally, these voters have splintered into smaller teams, every lobbying for its particular must take care of developmental disabilities, mobility challenges or different points. However the numerous communities got here collectively through the pandemic round imperatives like entry to well being care and employment, Schur stated…. ‘General, there is no such thing as a actual partisan benefit. When there was a blue wave in 2018, folks with disabilities have been a part of the blue wave. There wasn’t actually an enormous distinction, and I don’t count on a very massive distinction this yr,’ [Douglas] Kruse stated. ‘However it’s true, as Lisa [Schur] says, that well being care is extra necessary to folks with disabilities. And I believe that tends to favor the Democrats.’” Which may rely on what their expertise with the well being care system truly is. And: “Yet another truth about potential voters with disabilities heading to the polls throughout the nation this yr: There can be extra girls (21.6 million) than males (18.6 million). That breaks down into 411,300 males and 533,900 girls in New Jersey. The group of adults affected swells to 72.7 million — one in three eligible voters — after including those that dwell with somebody with a incapacity. Thought of that manner, the voters with disabilities now surpasses the Hispanic/Latino and Black voting demographics within the U.S., Kruse and Schur famous.”

* * *

Kamala (D): “The Clock Is Ticking on Kamala Harris” [Politico]. “The night’s moderator, Wisconsin conservative discuss present host turned anti-Trump author Charlie Sykes, opened with the political equal of a fastball down the center of the plate. Perched beneath a ‘Nation Over Celebration signal,’ Sykes requested Harris for her pitch to the voter who supported Republicans from yesteryear however are uneasy now about casting a poll for a Democrat. The vice chairman started by citing ‘the lived expertise’ of most People — sounding extra like a graduate pupil from down the highway in Madison than most People — of getting a lot in widespread. She repeated a line from her stump speech about how People ‘love our nation’ earlier than praising democracy, the rule of regulation and the Structure. Then, making a little bit progress, she invoked her service on the Senate Intelligence Committee, the place lawmakers from each events put apart partisanship to give attention to defending the ‘safety and well-being’ of all People. That, Harris concluded, ‘is at stake.’ That was it. Harris stated nothing particular about how she’d govern, talked about no looming difficulty on which she’d work with Republicans and provided no reassurances about main the nation from the political heart. And, after all, there was no critique of her personal social gathering and even an expression of sympathy or understanding about why voting for a liberal could possibly be troublesome for a longtime conservative. There wasn’t even a reference to her earlier commitments to incorporate a Republican within the Cupboard or create a bipartisan council of advisers. And this was in response to the opening query from a pre-selected moderator who’s supporting her marketing campaign!” • All the pieces about that is unhealthy: the candidate, the staffwork, and the online impact on these invested in her, like Sykes, who would possibly effectively really feel they’d been performed.

Kamala (D): What Kamala stated:

Hallie Jackson requested Harris yesterday: “Are you able to say that you simply have been trustworthy with the American folks about what you noticed in these moments with President Biden, as you have been with him time and again repeatedly in that point?”

Harris: “In fact. Joe Biden is a particularly completed,… pic.twitter.com/HMykeLm5MD

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 23, 2024

What others noticed:

At a Chevy Chase fundraiser in June 2023, Invoice Reichblum tells Woodward of Biden: “He by no means accomplished a sentence….He advised the identical story thrice in precisely the identical manner and it meandered a lot…Frankly, my impression was there have been instances…it was as if we didn’t exist.… pic.twitter.com/Vav7clSMGQ

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 23, 2024

I suppose a Democrat loyalist would say “She has to say that,” however it sticks in my craw. And Biden can be, we might neglect, nonetheless President. Why is that OK?

Kamala (D): “Detroit Muslim chief ejected from Kamala Harris rally, deepening rift between Democrats and Arab People” [Detroit Metro Times]. “Ahmed Ghanim, a Democrat, says he accepted an invite to the occasion and was seated within the Royal Oak Music Theatre when a marketing campaign organizer ordered him to go away. ‘She took me to the door, and she or he closed it, and I discovered two law enforcement officials ready there, and she or he stated, ‘You must go away proper now,” Ghanim tells Metro Occasions. ‘I requested why she was kicking me out. She wouldn’t reply. I used to be very calmly asking why I used to be being kicked out.’ He continues, ‘I used to be simply sporting a go well with and a white shirt. I stated, ‘OK,’ and I left. The police officer stated, ‘You both go away now or I’ll put you behind my automotive.’” Good. The Harris marketing campaign statementL “The marketing campaign was swiftly knowledgeable by Emgage Motion [Ghanim’s organizaiton] of yesterday’s incident and regarded into it,’ the assertion reads, referring to a Muslim American advocacy group. ‘Our marketing campaign regrets this motion and its impression on Dr. Ghanim and the group, and he’s welcome at future occasions. We worth our relationship with the Muslim American group and are dedicated to making sure all group and political areas are welcoming and respectful to each American.’” • Horrible staffwork, each in Ghanim’s ejection and the assertion (wherein the phrase “apologize” doesn’t seem). Regardless of the statements blah blah blah, it appears to be like to me just like the Harris marketing campaign already had the cops wired up, and had an inventory (with images) of attendees to bar.

Kamala (D): “What Kamala Harris Must Do to Win Over Extra Black Males” [New York Magazine]. “Democrats have identified since Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 that carrying the all-important industrial midwestern states requires most turnout within the Black communities of Detroit, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. The issue is that Dems have assumed they might generate Obama-era ranges of pleasure for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden — and now Kamala Harris — with out a substantial, sustained political funding up entrance.” And: “‘You’re going to choose on Black males and blame us for every thing. What did you ship to Black males previously 4 years?’ the activist and commentator Van Jones stated at a current college dialogue in California. ‘We needed the George Floyd police-reform act. Didn’t get it. We needed the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Didn’t get it. And we needed the EQUAL Act, the following step in legal justice reform, and didn’t get that. Three issues we needed, and we bought zero, zilch, nunca, nada, nothing.’ Against this, Jones famous, Trump signed the First Step Act, which granted early launch from federal jail to greater than 30,000 folks — a monumental rollback of mass incarceration that Democrats hardly ever talk about.” • Hmm.

Kamala (D):

NEWS

Vice President Kamala Harris is planning to ship her closing argument Tuesday in a speech on the Nationwide Mall.

Sources inform the Washington Publish that Harris’ speech will discuss January 6 however will focus extra broadly on her ideas on Trump’s menace to democracy.… pic.twitter.com/FVM52Jl01q

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 23, 2024

Chutzpah. Even Obama 2012 didn’t do this. I grant that the setting tops Carlson and Rogan.

Kamala (D): Biden on the path:

Biden in NH lists what Trump would do as president and says: “we gotta lock him up” after which, showing to understand how his feedback could be taken, provides: “politically, lock him up.” pic.twitter.com/cw3X8RzKn2

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) October 22, 2024

Thanks, Joe. We knew what you meant.

* * *

Trump (R): Media blitz (1):

Right here we go! 🇺🇸 @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/bgja6JPqsQ

— Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) October 22, 2024

JRE = Joe Rogan Expertise.

Trump (R): Media blitz (2):

Our dwell tour isn’t over but. For the grand finale, we’ll be in Glendale, AZ, on October thirty first with particular visitor President Donald J. Trump. All income can be donated to hurricane reduction efforts. We hope to see you there.

Get tickets to our largest present but at… pic.twitter.com/00756VvITT

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 23, 2024

* * *

Trump (R) (Willis/McAfee): “Particular prosecutor in Georgia’s case in opposition to Trump met with Biden officers” [Washington Times]. “Nathan Wade, who led the Fulton County election interference case in opposition to Donald Trump whereas having an affair with District Lawyer Fani Willis, admitted to congressional investigators he met with White Home officers a number of instances however claimed he couldn’t bear in mind the main points…. Ms. Willis employed Mr. Wade though he was a divorce lawyer with little expertise prosecuting legal circumstances. In 2022, he was paid almost $700,000 to supervise the case in opposition to the previous president, in response to a co-defendant searching for to have the costs dismissed….. Mr. Wade acknowledged the Biden administration’s involvement within the case through the interview that was performed on Oct. 15 by committee investigators. He verified the existence of invoices he submitted wherein he billed for a ‘Conf. with White Home counsel’ in Athens, Georgia, on Might 23, 2022. When requested about every of the invoices obtained by investigators, Mr. Wade responded 58 instances that he couldn’t bear in mind particulars.” • What motive might the White Home probably have for getting concerned in a state prosectution? Appears odd.

* * *

“Elon Musk ‘Jokes’ in a Church About Somebody Killing Kamala Harris” [Rolling Stone]. “Elon Musk retains attempting to stay his ‘joke’ about someone assassinating Vice President Kamala Harris. Over the weekend, Musk remarked, once more, that ‘nobody’s even bothering to attempt to kill Kamala’ … Performing as a Donald Trump surrogate — along with the $75 million moneyman behind a number one Trump Tremendous PAC — Musk spoke Saturday night time on the Life Heart megachurch in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, which is notable for launching the profession of Christian supremacist God-rocker Sean Feucht.” • I wouldn’t be stunned if Musk’s involvement, in any respect ranges, didn’t develop into a web destructive. He’s a free cannon, and the Trump marketing campaign doesn’t want two. (I’d like rather a lot much less Musk, and much more Kennedy. I wouldn’t name Kennedy a free cannon, a lot as his personal cannon. Apparently, a Townall with Trump, Kennedy, and Tulsi was cancelled; unlucky, for my part).

* * *

AZ: Spectacular:

Arizona Dem operating in opposition to Kari Lake foe the US Senate, RUBEN GALLEGO, had promised to go to all 22 of the state’s federally acknowledged tribes. However there was no highway main into the Havasupai village of 639 folks. So he trekked in on foot. It took him 4 hours to stroll there.

— Lise Horton Is Writing (@lisekimhorton) October 19, 2024

Maybe a stunt, however nonetheless spectacular.

GA: “In battleground Georgia, poor folks see no motive to vote. That call might sway election” [Associated Press (KLG)]. “Positioned about 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Atlanta, Bibb County is the form of place the place Vice President Kamala Harris would want to run up her margin as a way to defeat Donald Trump on this yr’s election, a technique that helped Biden win the state 4 years in the past as he promised to raise up Black People. It gained’t be simple: Bibb County by no means recovered all the roles misplaced through the pandemic, and Labor Division information present it had extra jobs in 2019 underneath Trump than it does now. Trump, the previous president, sees himself as having a chance with Black voters, notably males. However he and Harris have one factor in widespread: Every can have a troublesome time persuading folks to prove who sometimes sit out elections. Greater than 47,000 folks in Bibb County have been eligible to vote in 2020 and didn’t, a determine roughly 4 instances Biden’s margin of victory throughout your entire state.” However: “However the extra nonurban components of Georgia are solely a part of the electoral puzzle. It’s a dramatically completely different story in Atlanta and its vote-rich suburbs the place enthusiasm runs excessive for each Harris and Trump, though usually divided by race.” Nevertheless: “Nonvoters have primary, pressing wants the campaigns don’t deal with.”

NV: “The early voting weblog, 2024” [John Ralston (ick), Nevada Independent]. “Rurals matter. Particularly when they’re turning out 3.5 factors above their registration and producing landslide poll wins (58-20) over the Ds….. Dems are solely profitable the city Nevada poll race by 1 p.c – 38-37. Repubs have a virtually 3 p.c turnout benefit statewide.” • Fascinating, however early days but.

NV: “As Harris Courts Solar Belt, Housing Prices Stand in Her Approach” [New York Times]. “In a state that depends on hourly wage employees in tourism and repair jobs, many can’t discover an reasonably priced place to dwell… Many working-class voters say a promise has been damaged, and they’re in search of somebody accountable… Many once-reliable Democrats say the problem has eroded their belief in politicians. Within the state’s Democratic hub, which means turning away from Vice President Kamala Harris. ‘After we bought the brand new president, I didn’t hear nothing, I didn’t see any modifications,’ Maria Ocampo, 54, who has voted Democratic for many years, stated of the Biden administration. This yr, she doesn’t plan to vote in any respect.” • Harmless bystander: “Wasn’t Lina Khan engaged on price-gouging landlords?” Harris Marketing campaign: “Who?”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Early-voting information reveals Republican reversal seems to be paying off” [WaPo] “Democrats have embraced early voting for years, partly as a result of it leaves much less to probability on Election Day, when busy schedules, unhealthy climate or sickness can maintain voters from making it to the polls. Often called “banking” votes, early voting additionally permits campaigns to be extra environment friendly with sources as Election Day attracts close to by focusing consideration on a smaller and smaller group of voters who haven’t but forged ballots.” • One other manner of claiming that is that early voting skews towards partisans who don’t really need to review what the candidates are saying. Why we’re permitting that inhabitants, and the comfort of social gathering operatives, to drive how our elections are run is an open query.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Airborne Transmission: Covid

“Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on plane: A scoping evaluate” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Summary: “This evaluate summarises reported contact-tracing information and evaluates the secondary assault charges (SAR) and components related to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in plane, to offer perception for future resolution making within the context of future respiratory pandemics…. Our outcomes are according to sporadic clusters occurring onboard plane. Shut proximity to COVID-19 circumstances inside the plane was related to the next [secondary attack rates (SAR)].” • Sitting nearer to the aisle and transferring in regards to the cabin can be related to larger danger. As well as, transmission will even rely on the air flow patterns in any given plane.

An infection: Covid

“Incident COVID-19 infections earlier than Omicron within the US” (preprint) [medRxiv]. From the Summary: “[W]e retrospectively estimate each day incident infections for every U.S. state previous to Omicron. To this finish, reported COVID-19 circumstances are deconvolved to their date of an infection onset utilizing delay distributions estimated from the CDC line record. Then, a novel serology-driven mannequin is used to scale these deconvolved circumstances to account for the unreported infections. The ensuing infections incorporate variant-specific incubation intervals, reinfections, and waning antigenic immunity. They clearly show that the reported circumstances fail to mirror the complete extent of illness burden in all states. Most notably, , with an estimated reporting charge as little as 6.3% in New Jersey, 7.3% in Maryland, and eight.4% in Nevada. Furthermore, . Subsequently, whereas reported circumstances supply a handy proxy of illness burden, they fail to seize the complete extent of infections, and might severely underestimate the true illness burden.” Here’s a abstract of the strategy: “First, we estimate the delays from constructive specimen to report date and use them to push again the reported circumstances to their pattern assortment dates. Subsequent, we estimate the delay from symptom onset to pattern assortment, mix this with variant-specific infection-to-symptom delays, and use these to push again the circumstances to an infection onset. The ensuing case estimates are aggregated throughout variant classes and adjusted by the case ascertainment ratio, estimated with seroprevalence survey information and a mannequin for antigenic immunity.” That is above my paygrade. Maybe an epidemiologist within the readership can remark.

Elite Maleficence

Nonetheless killing folks:

WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG https://t.co/uP4sCT0VCy

— Nate Bear (@NateB_Panic) October 22, 2024

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Excellent news!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* highly regarded. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “every thing in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.

[7] (Walgreens) A pause.

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). No XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity as we speak.

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s unhealthy yr simply retains getting worse: One among its satellites has exploded in orbit, with particles changing into a possible menace to different satellites” [Fortune]. “A Boeing-made communications satellite tv for pc has exploded, with particles floating that would doubtlessly be a menace to different satellites sooner or later. Intelsat, the proprietor of the satellite tv for pc, is reporting “the entire loss” of the system in an replace on its Web site. The corporate is working with Boeing and authorities businesses to find out the reason for the mishap…. The U.S. Area Pressure says it’s monitoring 20 items of particles from the destroyed satellite tv for pc and there was no rapid menace to different orbiting house tools. Different observers, although, have seen increased quantities of particles. ExoAnalytic Options advised SpaceNews it was monitoring 57 items of particles and was warning operators of spacecraft that could possibly be vulnerable to collision. And Russia’s house company stated it was monitoring greater than 80 fragments.” • Oopsie.

Class Warfare

“The Tech Coup: A New Guide Exhibits How the Unchecked Energy of Corporations Is Destabilizing Governance” (interview) [Stanford University]. Interview with Stanford institute for Human-Centered AI Coverage Fellow Marietje Schaake. “In what methods are personal corporations more and more taking up capabilities usually assumed by states? Within the digital realm, corporations’ management of knowledge, unfettered company, and energy to behave have nearly overtaken that of governments. For instance, within the personal intelligence sector, corporations like NSO Group Applied sciences with its Pegasus adware merchandise are creating and promoting the aptitude to hack into folks’s gadgets. Because of this anybody with the monetary sources to buy Pegasus adware can entry the capabilities of intelligence providers and hack into the very personal data of political opponents, judges, journalists, important staff, opponents, and others. One other hanging instance is that of offensive cyber capabilities. Within the identify of defending their purchasers or their networks, corporations are attacking hackers throughout borders, utilizing ‘offense as protection.’ And see that I’m speaking not solely about massive tech corporations but additionally small ones, as a result of there’s de facto energy that comes from the event of digital applied sciences.”

“How Your Mind Detects Patterns with out Aware Thought” [Scientific American]. “In an experimental trial, contributors seen a collection of the face photos…. In the course of the experiment, neurons in every participant’s hippocampus and entorhinal cortex progressively started to reply not solely to the face being offered but additionally to faces straight related to it on the triangle. When requested whether or not they seen any sample within the order of the photographs, the contributors stated they didn’t. However their mind cells nonetheless learnt the sample, exhibiting that the mind can acknowledge patterns with out aware consciousness. Within the breaks between trials, the contributors’ ‘face’ neurons replayed what they’d learnt, biking by the patterns on their very own with out being stimulated to take action. ‘That is one thing that isn’t specific, it’s implicit. And the mind will get it, basically, in a short time, and we will see these modifications within the particular person cells,’ says Fried.” • Patterns usually, or optimized for faces?

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SC:

SC writes:

For greater than a decade, I’ve been intrigued by the genus Tithonia, aka “Mexican Sunflower.” I first encountered it again within the ’00s or early ’10s once I learn that it was used as inexperienced manure in components of Africa, planted alongside the sides of fields and harvested to be used as Nitrogen wealthy soil modification. At first, I assumed that it was fixing atmospheric Nitrogen however I later discovered that it merely accumulates already-present soil Nitrogen into its tissues. It’s a cheery, enticing plant, form of a large puff-ball of orange daisy-like blossoms. The blossoms are well-suited to the feeding anatomy of butterflies and hummingbirds. Beginning within the mid-to-late ’10s, I’ve been yearly offering a bunch of those to a neighborhood social providers company that crops them exterior its assembly rooms. The crops entice hummingbirds, which give a morale increase to workers and purchasers. At, I believe, clientele initiative, the company subsequently began a horticulture sub-agenda in one among its applications, an on-site day partial care program for mentally-ill homeless folks, and that has branched out into veggie, ornamental and herb gardening on the company web site.

Just a few years in the past, a sibling planted two of those (of species T. Rotundifolia, that apparently grows to six′ peak) and aggressively watered them. They grew to the eaves of her home, 8′ not less than, and have been so leafy and dense that you simply couldn’t see by them. The crops had tons of of blossoms and plenty of hiding locations, a form of hummingbird heaven. Such a big plant from a small seed.

This photograph is of an instance of T. speciosa (in my expertise, much less tall and bushy than rotundifolia), that apparently reaches 4-5′ peak. A buddy who commonly accepts crops from my “yard nursery” handed it additional on. It was began from seed in mid-Winter 2024. The recipient evidently aggressively watered and fertilized it; the plant towers at 9′. I’m wondering what the neighbors make of it.

Wow. I might actually file this underneath “Search for the helpers,” too!

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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In the event you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on how you can ship a test. Thanks!