The share change is lower than that for the CES estimate. Does this imply there are so much fewer individuals employed that indicated by the official collection (e.g. right here)? Right here’s information from 2023M06 onward:
Determine 1: Change in complete coated employment in Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), not seasonally adjusted (blue), official BLS nonfarm payroll employment (NFP) (purple), early benchmark NFP (tan), and preliminary benchmark implied (inexperienced), all relative to 2023M06. Supply: BLS, BLS by way of FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Whereas sometimes it’s assumed the preliminary benchmark can be extra correct given using tax information, to the extent there’s a substantial element of undocumented staff not having tax information reported on them, it could be the case that each preliminary benchmark and QCEW can be understating employment development.
