Yves right here. Please notice that among the hypothesis concerning the new Russian Oreshnik missile has been cleared up by later information experiences and unusually forthcoming commentary by Vladimir Putin.
Western commentators have tried to reduce the efficiency of the weapon by saying it didn’t comprise explosives, or worse, suggesting it was a dud. This can be a severe misreading. Our esteemed commentariat was early to tease out how the Oreshnik works. From feedback:
pugilist redleg >Blasting calculations use distance from the cost divided by both the sq. or dice of the load of the cost to get a scaled distance.
Harm could be from:
1. Direct influence of projectile
2. Shockwave from projectile influence (and from air strain 3+ km/s arrival velocity), which propagates by any materials not in a vacuum,
3. Vibration from influence.
Multiply by every warhead, and use the scaled distance from every to calculate cumulative results of shock/vibration injury extending from the influence.No explosive wanted. Power = 0.5* mass*(velocity^2). The injury will probably be intense and be extra like a hammer blow than an explosion.
What I attempted to say (in approach an excessive amount of haste) was that if we assume these had been purely kinetic warheads – merely blocks of dense materials – then they don’t want that a lot warmth shielding as there’s nothing delicate to guard contained in the warhead. No sensors, no management surfaces.
The influence vitality of 80 kg of tungsten hitting at mach 10 would be the similar whatever the floor situation or warmth of the projectile, so long as many of the mass reaches the goal.
Putin said, as was already broadly surmised, that the Oreshnik was “nuclear succesful”. Nonetheless, give the probably givens above, there doesn’t appear to be any purpose for it to hold typical explosives, because the uncooked kinetic drive + further superheating injury delivers a a lot larger punch.
By Rob Urie, writer of Zen Economics, artist, and musician who publishes The Journal of Belligerent Pontification on Substack
The Russian response to the US launching ATACMS brief vary missiles at targets deep inside Russia was to show a really massive Ukrainian munitions manufacturing facility into fantastic mud utilizing a brand new weapon which Russian President Vladimir Putin claims is presently in manufacturing.
The Russian weapon is by experiences non-nuclear, however hardly typical. Per Ted Postol, the missiles fired into Ukraine reportedly traveled at speeds as much as Mach 10. They appeared to superheat from an extended glide at low altitude that occurred after the missiles reentered the environment. They usually mixed warmth with kinetic vitality as they hit their goal to create nuclear scale destruction with out nuclear know-how.
Gilbert Doctorow gives that the brand new Russian weapon is a smaller model of an current liquid-fuel propelled ICBM that was first revealed by the Russians in 2018. The non-nuclear ICBM can hit any metropolis on this planet, travels so quick that it could’t be stopped, and one missile can destroy a land mass the dimensions of Britain.
The model fired into Ukraine has a solid-fuel rocket, making it extra secure than the liquid-fuel model, per Doctorow.
As if to exhibit the mental decline of the US, The New York Occasions experiences that the brand new Russian weapon will be fitted with nuclear warheads. Why that is silly nearly past comprehension is that the weapon produces nuclear-scale destruction with out being nuclear. Placing nuclear warheads on it will make it a much less efficient weapon, no more.
Why this confusion is problematic is that the Occasions is a mouthpiece for the CIA and Pentagon. If these sources actually have this little understanding of the Russian weapon, it signifies an incapacity by the US to grasp what it’s that the Russians have created.
Due to the weapon’s hypersonic velocity, it’s unattainable to cease utilizing presently current applied sciences. Given this, in addition to the weapon’s harmful capability, the Russians can destroy any metropolis inside vary of the weapon with no approach for the meant goal or its allies to cease it as soon as the weapon has been launched.
However as Doctorow has it, the higher risk is the ICBMs (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles). If one among these ICBMs had been to hit, say Philadelphia, it will take out New York and Washington as properly, the ‘Jap hall’ of the US. The US as a nation would stop to exist had been this to happen.
Some pundits in Europe look like confused as to who it’s that’s firing the ATACMS missiles into Russia. A number of in any other case educated speaking heads have asserted that it’s Ukraine that’s firing the missiles. This probably got here from the Biden administration’s framing that it ‘had given Ukraine permission to fireplace’ the missiles when, for technical and safety causes, solely the People can launch them.
The purpose: the Ukrainians didn’t hearth the ATACMS missiles at Russia, the People did. By pretending that the choice to fireplace further missiles lies with Zelensky and the Ukrainians, the Biden administration desires to regulate the method with out taking accountability for the implications.
The Biden administration seems to be assuming that the remainder of the world is as gullible and unaware of fundamental details as it’s. The Russians know who fired the missiles. At current, to the extent that there’s confusion amongst the belligerents, it’s on the American and European facet.
With apologies for the usage of the phrase, the brand new weapons give Russia ‘escalation dominance,’ which means that Russia will prevail towards foes because the events escalate because of the lethality and velocity of the brand new weapons.
With its navy cabinets naked, the one escalatory response that the US has left is nuclear weapons. Regardless of claims on the contrary emanating from the Biden White Home, the Trump-elect administration, and the American protection institution, nearly any use of nuclear weapons will set in movement a sequence of occasions that may finish humanity.
After the brand new Russian weapon landed in Ukraine, the Biden administration launched a second volley of ATACMS missiles into Russia. This, as members of the US navy publicly proposed that the US place nuclear weapons in Ukraine and said that the US is ready to prevail in a nuclear struggle.
The Russians have already said that Russia won’t settle for nuclear weapons being positioned in Ukraine due to Ukraine’s proximity to Russia. Based on retired US Colonel Doug MacGregor, the US does have the nuclear weapons to position in Ukraine. They’re about all that the US has left in response to MacGregor.
The incoming Trump administration is wanting even dumber and extra harmful than Biden & Co., with Trump’s Deputy Nationwide Safety advisor, Sebastion Gorka, and Nationwide Safety advisor, Mike Walz, each displaying crude belligerence, close to full ignorance of fundamental details, and a certainty that really, deeply, unworkable concepts will change the course of historical past. Word: this can be a respectable description of Biden and his mind belief as properly. They usually acquired us to the present mess.
As an example, Gorka is pushing the Trump marketing campaign’s silliness that Trump will threaten to flood Ukraine with weapons till Putin begs for a cease-fire deal. One drawback with this concept is that Ukraine is out of armies. Flood away, there isn’t any one left to make use of the American weapons. One other drawback is that, in response to the navy people referenced above, the American navy’s cabinets are naked, which means that the weapons wanted to flood Ukraine with might want to first be produced.
This makes the Trump plan for Ukraine a 3—five-year proposition.
The additional not-well-thought-outedness of the plan is that the entire logic of Biden drawing the Russians into Ukraine was to ‘bleed Russia.’ The thought, as was reported within the US press, was that Russia would waste blood and treasure in Ukraine to the purpose the place the People might arrange a Colour Revolution, take away Mr. Putin, after which loot Russia’s assets. Whereas this makes Biden and his compatriots industrial scale scumbags, it additionally reveals their profound ignorance of how far each Russia and China have developed since such a transfer was practicable.
The irony of the Trump plan, if something this harmful will be ironic, is that it will ‘bleed’ the US. 1) the US presently lacks the weapons to back-up Trump’s risk. 2) the lead -time and value to provide the weapons that Trump is threatening to deploy are prohibitive. 3) the ‘plan’ reads like good old school American bullshit and bluster, as a result of that’s what it’s.
What’s most telling about what the People are doing and saying is that they don’t seem to know the place that they’ve put the US, and the world, into. If the People might both match or cease Russia’s hypersonic weapons, which they will’t, then their threats may appear impolitic, crude, and unnecessarily belligerent, however not completely batshit loopy.
If Trump imagines that the struggle in Ukraine will probably be ended with the three Bs, belligerence, bullshit, and bluster, this appears a weak plan. The second-order drawback for Trump is that his deliberate Larger Israel struggle towards your entire Center East is dependent upon first ending the US struggle in Ukraine.
Whereas this may increasingly learn as a chance for the US to not recreate Hitler’s march by Europe, solely within the Center East, the extra probably result’s that getting slowed down in Stalingrad (Ukraine) would be the coup de grace. If the implications may very well be confined to the politicians who created this mess, justice is likely to be served. However that isn’t how the West works. They are going to be in bunkers as the remainder of us are despatched to the good past. Thanks, Joe Biden.
A lot of the technical info on this notice got here from public interviews with Ted Postol, Gilbert Doctorow, Scott Ritter, and Douglas MacGregor.
