2:00PM Water Cooler 3/15/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Beneficiant readers, thanks as soon as once more for making the 2024 Water Cooler fundraiser such an entire success. Now I can loosen up [ha ha]. –lambert

Chook Tune of the Day

Blue Nuthatch, Fraser’s Hill, Pahang, Malaysia. “Foraging or consuming.” Smart birds!

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

(1) Boeing horror continues

(2) Bogus paper assaults Lengthy Covid.

(3) Berlin Techno

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“The White Home knew Schumer’s Israel speech was coming. Israel will discover that” [Semafor]. “The White Home reviewed, however didn’t block, Senate Majority Chief Charles Schumer’s sharp assault on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday. Whereas the administration has not embraced his explosive name for brand new elections, the shortage of obvious pushback signaled a rising cut up between the 2 international locations’ leaderships….. Each Netanyahu’s political allies and opponents pushed again arduous in opposition to the feedback popping out of Washington, charging they have been designed to tip the political scales in Israel. ‘No matter our political opinion, we strongly oppose exterior political intervention in Israel’s inside affairs,’ former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote on X. “We’re an impartial nation, not a banana republic.’” • Lol, “exterior political intervention.” What we actually should do is about up an IAPAC (Israeli America Public Affairs Committee) in Israel, and lavishly pump marketing campaign contributions to Israeli politicians via it, together with particularly the actual property speculators goat sacrificers. Cheaper than sending in a moist workforce, and much much less harmful.

“Schumer stabs Israel within the again with disgraceful remarks” [Norm Coleman, The Hill]. • Ah, the dolchstosslegende takes on new life…

2024

Lower than a yr to go!

Listed here are Fridays’ RealClearPolitics polling numbers. I’ve highlighted the 2 features I feel are most necessary:

(1) 5-way polling. The Trump-Biden binary shouldn’t be informative, given Kennedy’s energy (and, who is aware of, West and Stein). Sadly, a lot of the maps and charts mirror that binary. (2) Swing (“battleground”) states numbers, since these drive the electoral faculty, not the favored vote (which, once more, a lot of the maps and charts mirror).

* * *

Trump (R): “Fulton County decide says district legal professional Fani Willis can proceed to prosecute the 2020 election interference case” [CNN]. “Fulton County District Legal professional Fani Willis can keep on and prosecute the Georgia 2020 election interference racketeering case in opposition to former President Donald Trump and 14 of his co-defendants, Decide Scott McAfee dominated Friday, however provided that she removes the particular prosecutor with whom she engaged in a romantic relationship.” • I’d think about this may create calendar points, as a brand new prosecutor should be chosen and introduced in control (though after all Willis and her BFF may run away collectively).

Trump (R): “READ: Georgia decide slams prosecutors in Trump case for ‘odor of lying’” [Axios]. “McAfee, in his extremely anticipated resolution, didn’t shrink back from writing with aptitude. Neither facet offered adequate proof for the decide to find out when precisely the connection began, he mentioned. ‘Nonetheless, an odor of lying stays,’ he wrote.” • I suppose Willis received’t be going to work for Neera Tanden anytime quickly?

Trump (R): “Fani Willis Survives, However Donald Trump Will Be Celebrating” [Newsweek]. “Willis has already mentioned that the trial might proceed previous presidential inauguration day in January 2025. If the case was transferred to a different prosecutor, it could virtually actually delay the case previous inauguration…. Stephen Gillers, a regulation professor at New York College, informed Newsweek that Trump’s final objective is to delay the case till after the election. ‘It does seem that, inch by inch, the legal justice system is making any 2024 trial much less and fewer possible,’ he mentioned. ‘Trump’s legal professionals simply should get to Labor Day after which nothing will occur till 2025, if then.” • A lot for all that earned media! However I’m certain Trump can give you an equally profitable and efficient technique than the one Democrats handed to him.

Trump (R): “State Of Georgia V. Donald John Trump, Rudolph William Louis Giuliani, Mark Randall Meadows, Jeffrey Bossert Clark, Robert David Cheeley, Michael A. Roman, David James Shafer, Harrison William Prescott Floyd, and Cathleen Alston Latham” (PDF) [Fulton County Superior Court]. Right here is the treatment:

I’ve outlined in pink the portion that, in my studying, signifies that Decide McAfee doesn’t assume a lot of Trump’s authorized workforce (and there are different examples).

Trump (R): “‘Uncommon Provision’ in Chubb’s Donald Trump Bond Attracts Scrutiny” [Newsweek (Furzy Mouse)]. “”There’s an uncommon provision within the bond that will give Chubb 60 days from the date closing judgment is entered in Carroll’s favor (if she wins on enchantment) to make fee to her,” [former U.S. Attorney and long-time Trump critic Joyce] Vance wrote. If Trump loses his enchantment and doesn’t pay the cash, ‘Chubb should tender the total quantity. They will acquire from Trump in flip, however doing that will be their drawback,’ Vance wrote. ‘That is excellent news for E. Jean Carroll as a result of the bond ensures that the judgment can be paid if she prevails on enchantment.’ Vance additionally famous that the decide gave Carroll’s legal professionals till Monday morning to file objections to the bond. He’ll maintain a listening to at 3 p.m. that very same day in the event that they do.” • I’m wondering if the New York State legislators who handed what amounted to a invoice of attainder that allowed Carroll to sue will get a reduce as, in all equity, they need to.

* * *

Biden (D): “Hunter Biden, companions aided Chinese language bid to nook nuclear power market with U.S. tech, memos present” [Just the News]. “Whereas his father was nonetheless vice chairman, Hunter Biden and his enterprise companions tried unsuccessfully to assist a Chinese language power agency purchase one of many United States’ premier nuclear expertise corporations in a secret try to ‘management’ the worldwide market, in keeping with new proof turned over to Congress in President Joe Biden’s impeachment inquiry. The proof, which features a detailed technique memo , exhibits Hunter Biden was immediately concerned in emails and correspondence on the venture in 2016 and that the objective was to use the long run first son’s entry to energy and his household status to make Washington and Beijing snug with a probably controversial deal after which to protect the acquisition of Westinghouse by China CEFC Vitality behind intermediaries…. Hunter Biden ‘had an fascinating final identify that will in all probability get individuals within the door,’ [One of Hunter Biden’s former business partners, Rob Walker] defined to lawmakers.” • Speculating greater than a bit of right here, however we easy People have a tendency to consider corruption as “money in a brown paper bag” (as certainly did as soon as occur with CalPERS) and a quid professional quo. I don’t assume that’s the way it works in China. Here’s a small story from Naomi Wu (who as NuKit reallly is doing nice work manufacturing Covid testing and prevention tools). She begins off speaking about tech bros from the West, so for context:

And so Wu accomodates Sheet Metallic Woman Boss (find it irresistible!). However now add one ingredient: Suppose, whereas Wu and SMBL have been having dimsum, a excessive official within the native celebration equipment simply occurred to cease by to greet SMBL. Would that swing the deal SMBL’s manner? I feel it could. You’ll be able to have a look at all this as friendship, after all. However you can additionally have a look at it as corruption. Now, that’s precisely what occurs when Hunter — pricey Hunter! — is making a take care of Ukrainians or Chinese language or whoever and The Huge Man simply occurs to drop by, grinning and slapping shoulders, as one does. I feel the Republicans really want to keep away from getting misplaced within the weeds right here, and making an attempt to do kneejerkitude and aghastology on ZOMG China!! ZOMG nukes!!!! Preserve it easy. Concentrate on the relationships (“model constructing”) and assemble timelines that present present money flows into the assorted tributaries of the mighty cash river of the Biden clan.

Biden (D): “Hunter Biden witness could also be self-serving however his China cover-up information is correct” [New York Post]. “Fugitive Gal Luft, the ‘lacking witness’ from the Biden corruption investigation, has made recent allegations in regards to the president’s household’s China connections in an unique 50-page expose obtained by The Put up. The previous Israel Protection Drive lieutenant colonel, who labored with the identical Chinese language power firm, CEFC, that paid Hunter and Jim Biden greater than $8 million, skipped bail in Cyprus final yr after being charged with tried gun-running, appearing as a overseas agent for China and mendacity to the FBI.” Busy man! Extra: “Whereas his assaults on federal prosecutors clearly are self-serving, his disclosures thus far have confirmed correct, and his ongoing conversations with former staff of CEFC whereas on the run have produced new details about how influential People on either side of the aisle in Washington have been recruited to serve China’s imperialist Belt and Highway Initiative…. Hunter Biden, ‘the true sheikh of Washington,’ as certainly one of his companions dubbed him, wasn’t the one VIP cultivated by CEFC’s enigmatic billionaire chairman Ye Jianming, who sprinkled costly diamonds round Washington like sweet. An power knowledgeable with deep intelligence ties in Washington and Beijing, Luft claims, ‘three former nationwide safety advisors, a former CIA Director, a former NSA Director, a former Chairman of the Fed, former cupboard secretaries, former senators, retired generals, CEOs [acted as] CEFC’s enablers in Washington [and] have been prepared to go to nice lengths to complement themselves by parking below Ye’s robe.’ Chairman Ye, Hunter’s most profitable Chinese language enterprise companion, has not been seen since he was arrested for ‘financial crimes’ in China in early 2018, on the direct orders of President Xi Jinping, in keeping with Chinese language information company Caixin.” • Properly properly!

* * *

Biden (D): “Trump vs. Biden Polls: No State of the Union Bounce for Joe” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “It’s arduous to magnify the psychological increase Democrats derived from Joe Biden’s 2024 State of the Union Handle…. However whereas the State of the Union did wonders for Democratic optimism, there’s merely not a lot proof that it modified many minds about Joe Biden’s job efficiency or flipped many votes from Republican to Democrat…. Even when Biden didn’t carry assessments of his job efficiency on this one speech, did he a minimum of injury perceptions of Trump? There’s not a lot publicly out there proof of that both. Sure, a publish–State of the Union ballot from ABC/Ipsos gave Trump a horrible 29 % to 59 % favorable/unfavorable ratio, nevertheless it additionally gave Biden a nearly-as-terrible 33 % to 54 % ratio…. The State of the Union tackle, regardless of Biden’s combo platter of self-promotion and assaults on “my predecessor,” additionally had no palpable affect on general-election polling. In head-to-head matchups with Trump, the RCP averages confirmed Trump main Biden by 1.8 % on March 7 and by 2.4 % at present.” • Kilgore’s view is bipartisan–

Biden (D): “Biden’s State of the Union speech answered one huge query” [FOX]. “n Thursday night time’s State of the Union tackle, President Joe Biden spoke principally to Democrats and answered one query and one query solely: is he, at this level, capable of be a candidate for reelection? His reply, as evidenced by his fiery, combative, and intensely partisan speech, is sure, he’s, however just for these Democratic and Democratic-leaning independents who’re inclined to vote for the incumbent president. …. For Democrats, let’s not underestimate how necessary this speech was. In response to latest polling, 36% of Democrats assume their celebration ought to nominate somebody apart from Joe Biden. And for that group, this tackle offered a minimum of some reassurance that he can ship a hearth and brimstone speech.” • Therefore the resounding echos within the Democrat echo chamber (and nothing exterior it).

* * *

Biden (D): Alert reader SG has this to say on Bidenonmics:

“The unemployed bought $300 in enhanced weekly advantages.”

Gee, I didn’t. The truth is, I didn’t get something in any respect as a result of my erstwhile employer lied and mentioned that I give up once they laid me off. I couldn’t file an enchantment utilizing the web site (as a result of it didn’t work) and I couldn’t do it in particular person as a result of the unemployment workplace was closed attributable to COVID. Characteristic, not bug, I suppose.

Caltrops wherever you look.

* * *

“Unbiased candidates spoil the chances in slender rematch of Trump, Biden” [Washington Times]. “Unbiased candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are poised to upend a historic repeat faceoff between President Biden and former President Donald Trump…. Mr. Kennedy, 70, has collected sufficient signatures to seem on the poll in New Hampshire, Hawaii, Utah and Nevada, a key swing state Mr. Biden received narrowly in 2020. An aligned tremendous PAC, American Values 2024, mentioned it has the requisite signatures to place Mr. Kennedy on the ballots within the battleground states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and South Carolina…. Mr. West is on the poll in Oregon, Utah and South Carolina, in keeping with his marketing campaign, and is engaged on poll entry in extra swing states, together with Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona. Political analysts and pollsters say the impartial candidates’ affect on the election is difficult to measure however may resolve the end result if the race is as shut because the one in 2020.”

* * *

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Media

Let’s begin right here:

“Time to cease utilizing time period ‘lengthy Covid’ as signs are not any worse than these after flu, examine finds” [Guardian]. Simply in time for Lengthy Covid Consciousness Day! “Lengthy Covid could also be no completely different from different post-viral syndromes similar to these skilled after flu, in keeping with new analysis from Queensland Well being. The lead creator of the examine, the state’s chief well being officer Dr John Gerrard, mentioned it was ‘time to cease utilizing phrases like ‘lengthy Covid” as a result of they suggest there’s something distinctive in regards to the longer-term signs related to the virus, and in some circumstances create hypervigilance.’” And: “Gerrard will current [the study] subsequent month on the European Congress of Scientific Microbiology and Infectious Illnesses in Barcelona.” • This observational examine appears, at this level, to not exist on-line. I can’t discover a preprint. Might individuals attainable be quoting from the Convention brochure? So, after a single information cycle, we get this–

“On Lengthy COVID Consciousness Day, bear in mind this: Lengthy COVID is faux!” [Editorial Board, New York Post]. “The examine exhibits the illness is an utter illusion, a part of the infinite litany of socially stylish illnesses beloved by the anxious and prosperous. Consider all of the self-diagnosed psychological sickness and neuro problems on TikTok.” • And we get this–

“Queensland’s Chief Well being Officer Dr John Gerrard says it’s time to cease utilizing the time period ‘lengthy Covid’ – right here’s why” [Daily Mail]. “‘Lengthy Covid’ is a ‘sinister’ time period that causes ‘pointless worry’ and needs to be abolished, in keeping with Queensland’s Chief Well being Officer [Dr John Gerrard].” • Can’t we depart public relations to professionals?

The way it’s performed:

journalist reveals the soiled secret behind the hit job https://t.co/Kfva1XY4dK

— Froglet Taylor (@froglet80) March 15, 2024

Looks as if Queensland is loads like Alberta, the place John Conleys nonetheless roam the earth. Here’s a debunking thread:

Beginning a debunking thread. On this Queensland “LongCovid is rather like LongFlu” examine.

Thus far that is what now we have. https://t.co/MyGcnYRWVU

— Lazarus Lengthy (@LazarusLong13) March 15, 2024

Gerrard’s methodology:

@DALupton rebuttal piece on methodology?

— Prof Gemma Carey, PhD MMedSci (@gemcarey) March 15, 2024

“Why it is perhaps too early to cease saying long-COVID” [ABC Australia]. “In response to a press launch in regards to the convention and analysis, the analysis from Queensland Well being mentioned above is ‘being ready for submission to a medical journal [which?] forward of the convention in April 2024.’” • So we don’t actually have a paper in any respect. We solely have quotes a couple of paper. What an excellent religion effort, to make sure!

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new at present; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) A bit “modified rapture” (“may very well be worse”) however we our falling curve has now reached the extent of earlier Trump peaks. Not an awesome victory. Notice additionally the world “below the curve,” in addition to peaks. That space is bigger below Biden than below Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.

[2] (Biobot) Regional separation re-emerges.

[3] (CDC Variants) As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening. (Date for knowledge corrected; it was a glitch.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit within the rear view mirror.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Backward revisions take away NV.1 knowledge. JN.1 dominates totally.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial manufacturing within the US elevated by 0.1% from the earlier month in February 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.5% fall in January. It in contrast with market expectations of no development and marked a rebound from two consecutive months of decline.”

(1) Manufacturing: “‘If something occurs, it’s not suicide’: Boeing whistleblower’s prediction to household earlier than loss of life” (video) [WCIV, YouTube].

Manufacturing: “Boeing whistleblower John Barnett ‘made highly effective enemies’ earlier than his loss of life, as employees ‘skeptical’ he killed himself” [New York Post]. “Boeing employees warn that whistleblower John Barnett ‘made highly effective enemies’ earlier than his alleged suicide… ‘I don’t know what to imagine. We don’t actually speak about it on the (meeting) line. We’re on digital camera from the minute we get on the property. They will hear us. So nobody desires to speak about it at work. Lots of people are skeptical, as a result of he made some fairly highly effective enemies,” [said one Boeing worker]…. Steve Chancellor, who has written two books on staged crime scenes and runs Second Look Coaching and Forensic Consulting, mentioned that when somebody dies by suicide, the gun solely stays within the particular person’s hand 25% of the time. The mere incontrovertible fact that the gun was within the hand, I’d take note of that,” he informed The Put up.” • I nonetheless wish to know what occurred to Barnett’s laptop. Presumably, it was in his resort room? The place did it go after that? (The 25% determine is supported by this examine in The American Journal of Forensic Medication and Pathology, from alert reader ChrisPacific.) In the meantime, This account claims Barnett’s truck was dusted for fingerprints, however there’s no sourcing and no parallel cite I can discover.

Manufacturing: “A pal of John Barnett mentioned he predicted he may wind up useless” [Hacker News]. • Skimming, I discover little on Barnett, however a lot on eBay executives appearing as in the event that they have been villains in Michael Clayton

Tech: “Imaginative and prescient Professional is an over-engineered “devkit” // {Hardware} bleeds genius & audacity however software program story is disheartening // What we bought fallacious at Oculus that Apple bought proper // Why Meta may lastly have its Android second” [Hugo’s Blog]. “One of many findings in these experiments was that an excessive amount of realism and constancy may very well be one of many issues that crosses a line. In different phrases, hyperrealism may shortly drag individuals into the uncanny valley, certainly one of two locations we at all times wish to keep away from in VR (the opposite place is movement illness)…. Fortunately for Apple, there may be one class the place hyperrealism is far much less prone to be a problem particularly for hardcore followers — Reside Sports activities. Reside sports activities can be Apple’s secret weapon to promote an enormous variety of Imaginative and prescient Professional headsets to hardcore followers — nevertheless it’s going to be an extended & costly journey.” • Fascinating. So don’t quick Apple, I suppose.

As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 68 Greed (earlier shut: 72 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 15 at 12:39:09 PM ET.

The Gallery

“A $300 Watercolor Turns Out to Be a JMW Turner That Might Be Value $38,000” [ArtNet]. • Painted when Turner was 20:

Wonderful, when you concentrate on it, what the attention, hand, mind, and brush can do.

The Conservatory

“Germany provides Berlin’s techno scene to Unesco cultural heritage record” [Guardian]. “Intangible cultural heritage standing is extra generally granted to extra conventional cultural actions, similar to Malawian Mwinoghe dancing or Slovakian bagpipe tradition. The latest recognition on Unesco’s record of intangible cultural heritage of Jamaican reggae and India’s large Kumbh Mela pageant, nevertheless, prompted techno neighborhood leaders in Berlin to marketing campaign for his or her scene to be included in Germany’s register, which is separate to the Unesco record.” • I’m questioning what American cultural actions needs to be granted “intangible heritage” standing (and I’m not being fully ironic. I used to be pondering Huge Truck Days, however there are too a lot of them).