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Thursday, November 21, 2024

WaPo: “In Wisconsin, a vote for Biden or Trump might come right down to grocery costs”

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That article prompted me to  puzzled whether or not Wisconsin’s grocery costs had moved up sooner than the Nation’s. They’ve!

“Every thing is so rattling excessive,” she mentioned, shaking her head at $3.09 bottles of Coca Cola. “Good ol’ Biden.”

“When Trump was president, there wasn’t inflation,” she mentioned. “We might afford meals.”

Affording meals depends on each value and earnings. We are able to sort of observe prices – though not particularly for Wisconsin. We are able to see them for East North Central (Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio).

Determine 1 exhibits that meals at dwelling costs in East North Central have risen greater than nationally, however lower than the Midwest general.

However, the cumulative hole between meals costs and general CPI is wider than on the nationwide degree.

Within the final quarter of 2023, the hole was about 4.5 share factors (i.e., from 2021M01 onward, meals costs had risen 4.5 share factors greater than the general value degree). On the nationwide degree the corresponding hole was about 2.5 share factors.

Whereas Wisconsinites — properly East North Central Midwesterners — have seen meals costs rise, as of the second half of October 2023, Wisconsinites spent $49/week much less on groceries than the nationwide common of $270.

It’s additionally true that wages and salaries have elevated over time, as in comparison with 2021. Meals costs relative to per capita wages and salaries had been as excessive in 2023Q1 as in 2020Q2. Whereas they’ve since recovered, they’re nonetheless decrease in 2023Q3 (final information accessible) by about 6% relative to 2019Q4.

Why may costs have risen sooner in East North Central (and Midwest) than nationally? I believed it is likely to be grocery retailer focus, however what little analysis I’ve seen (e.g., Cakir, et al., 2023) signifies an affiliation between focus (measured by a Herfindahl index) and value degree, and never charge of change. So I don’t have an excellent reply right here.



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