Launched immediately. Continued development in employment, GDP, based mostly on nationwide traits and outlook from SPGMI (report right here).
Right here’s the employment outlook, now in comparison with November.
Determine 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (daring black), Financial Outlook forecast from February 2024 (pink), from November 2023 (mild inexperienced), forecasted based mostly on nationwide forecast of Survey of Skilled Forecasters (mild blue), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Division of Income, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
The SPF implied forecast relies on 2021M07-2024M01 regression in first variations, which signifies each share level enhance in US nonfarm payroll employment is related to a 0.76 share level enhance in Wisconsin employment (R2 of 0.41). (SPF forecast interpolated to to month-to-month by way of quadratic match.)
The substantial brightening in outlook is highlighted by the hole in employment forecast from the November and February reviews. That forecast matches fairly intently the advert hoc forecast I generated utilizing SPF forecasts for nationwide employment.
Wisconsin GDP has skilled a much less dramatic change in outlook.
Determine 2: Wisconsin GDP (daring black), Financial Outlook forecast from February 2024 (pink), from November 2023 (mild inexperienced), forecasted based mostly on nationwide forecast of Survey of Skilled Forecasters (mild blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, Division of Income, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
The Wisconsin February outlook is barely much less optimistic for 2023, however exhibits sooner development in 2024, roughly matching the connection between US and Wisconsin GDP 2018-19. (For GDP, my forecast relies on a regression estimated in first variations, 2018Q1-2019Q4, Adj-R2 = 0.42).
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