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Recession

Governments Influence On Markets

“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022

Diana McGrath -
Thet’s  Jeffrey Tucker within the Epoch Instances by way of ZeroHedge. It’s an inexpensive supposition {that a} recession will change into apparent to all...
Governments Influence On Markets

Recession after the Election? | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
Charles Payne joins the recession camp. Present indicators aren't very supportive of an imminent recession: Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP...
Governments Influence On Markets

Eric Hovde: In Recession | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
Video at the moment. 55% of People consider they're in a recession. Why? As a result of they've been in a single. Most indicators recommend in...
Governments Influence On Markets

Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”

Diana McGrath -
Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out right now; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS...
Governments Influence On Markets

Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Thriller Meat-Particular Sauce Strategy to Nationwide Revenue Accounting

Diana McGrath -
In a latest paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the height in GDP, correctly measured, was in 2021Q4. Supply: Antoni and...
Governments Influence On Markets

Manufacturing in Recession? (Revisited) | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
Excessive frequency indicators (PMI, and many others.) counsel — and have instructed — a slowdown in manufacturing. Nonetheless, different indicators point out sideways...
Governments Influence On Markets

Disciplining the Debate: Recession Indicator AUROCs

Diana McGrath -
One of many attention-grabbing issues in regards to the present debate over whether or not we’re about to enter a recession or not...
Governments Influence On Markets

“Newly launched knowledge from the Commerce Division present what some individuals have been saying for months: The nation is in recession.”

Diana McGrath -
That’s EJ Antoni/Heritage Basis, writing in September 2022. A cautionary word on declaring recessions. Moreover, the Biden administration’s cherry-picking of knowledge has come again...
Governments Influence On Markets

Is Manufacturing In Recession? | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
As of August, incorporating newest capability utilization and manufacturing knowledge, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face worth the preliminary benchmark...
Governments Influence On Markets

Waterproof coat/WSJ: “A Recession Sign Is Flashing Pink. Or Is It?”

Diana McGrath -
Article right now on whether or not it issues if dis-inversion happens as a result of quick charges fall, or lengthy charges rise. Two...
Governments Influence On Markets

Peter Schiff on Recession | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
Peter Schiff right now: This morning has seen a trifecta of weak financial information. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing each got here out even...
Governments Influence On Markets

EJ Antoni on the Present Recession

Diana McGrath -
From EJ Antoni (Heritage), article entitled “Coming recession could have already got arrived” within the Boston Herald (8/21): “…an rising variety of indicators say...
Governments Influence On Markets

Manufacturing in Recession? | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Right here’s an image of varied sequence related to the manufacturing sector. Determine 1: Manufacturing...
Governments Influence On Markets

Recession earlier than the Election? | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
I see a bevy of economists (loads on the precise, see right here) saying we’re in a recession, or quickly to be in...
Governments Influence On Markets

EJ Antoni: “manufacturing is in recession”

Diana McGrath -
From X, on Thursday: That is past ridiculous: industrial manufacturing and capability utilization noticed one other large downward revision, and Jul’s print nonetheless got...
Governments Influence On Markets

Oxford Economics: Recession at 3 & 6 Months Horizons

Diana McGrath -
When you’re questioning a few recession by the point the election rolls round… Supply: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Nonetheless no signal of a...
Governments Influence On Markets

Excessive Frequency Recession Indicators | Econbrowser

Diana McGrath -
Lewis/Mertens/Inventory and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly indicators, and Torsten Slok’s rundown. Determine 1: Lewis/Mertens/Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US...
Governments Influence On Markets

Can One Have a Recession Begin When Actual Family Wealth Is Rising?

Diana McGrath -
Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The underside line is that the tailwind to client spending for householders and fairness homeowners is...
Governments Influence On Markets

Some Wisconsin Macro Indicators via February (and Ideas on the Wisconsin GOP Imagined Recession that Wasn’t)

Diana McGrath -
Coincident index for February out right this moment. Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (darkish blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian...

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